Coinrule

Coinrule

If market cycles still matter, this current one will be remembered as a disappointment by many crypto traders. With Bitcoin Dominance up-only, this has been the cycle of institutional traders who accumulate Bitcoin. For years, crypto traders hoped that institutions would 'buy our bags'. But for now, only 'King BTC' has benefitted. From its low point at less than...

Coinrule

Usually, the problem with politicians is that they do not do what they were elected for. But every so often, a politician comes along who does what he (or she) says which can cause even greater problems. In the last newsletter we wrote: 'The impact of possible Trump tariffs on the economy and trading partners such as China, Mexico and the EU is a great unknown...

Coinrule

Happy new year, traders! A few year-end wobbles not withstanding, Bitcoin has remained steadily within, or just above, the $100k price range over the past weeks. Bears briefly pushed Bitcoin below $90k but the dip was slurped up quickly and Bitcoin bounced upwards. Just as in the summer of 2024, when it was clear that Bulls had run out of steam, the same can be...

Coinrule

The crypto industry and Bitcoiners in particular will remember 2024 as a very successful year. That final bastion of TradFi acceptance, ETFs, was taken. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have attracted more than $34 billion in inflows. Bitcoin crossed that big psychological barrier of $100,000 and is now a 6-figure asset. Total crypto market capitalization exceeded a...

Coinrule

The $100k BTC mark has been a mythological target for crypto traders for a very long time. It felt so near back in 2021, yet proved to be so far. In the end, we even went below $20k again before going back up this year. When you are reading this, 1 Bitcoin might well already be worth over $100,000. But for now, over the past 24h, it has continued to remain...

Coinrule

The last months in crypto markets have been firmly in the shadow of the looming US presidential elections. Whatever one's political stance, it was hard to argue that a Donald Trump victory would not be immensely positive for the crypto industry. The ongoing legal fights between US regulators such as the SEC and the crypto industry and the Biden administration's...

Coinrule

Uptober is finally upon us. But as Bitcoin's price picked up, the real standout price action this month has once again come from Solana. The high-performance chain is the main hub for this cycle's biggest narrative: memecoin trading. Retail traders enjoy the speed, ease-of-use and 'straightforwardness' of Solana's trading experience. The fact that popular memecoin...

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One often-shared myth among crypto traders is that of 'Uptober'. After a slow summer, markets tend to pick up in October. This is somewhat based on historical data. October is the third-best best performing month for crypto assets after November and April going all the way back to 2012. Expectations for this current October are set high after the long-awaited...

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This week, the Federal Reserve delivered a highly anticipated 50 basis point interest rate cut, the first of its kind in over four years. Crypto markets, as expected, reacted swiftly, with Bitcoin jumping over 4% and breaking past the $62,000 level. The broader cryptocurrency market followed, with Ethereum, Solana, and others posting gains as investors...

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The current market setup can be described as 'Waiting for Godot'. But in contrast to the Samuel Beckett play, markets are awaiting the Federal Reserve to finally start cutting interest rates. And hopefully, also unlike in the actual play, the wait will not be eternal. Over the past week, market sentiment dropped even further. Jitters about the slowing US economy...

Coinrule

Not terribly much has happened in terms of price action or news over the past week or so. The majors such as Bitcoin have mostly been moving sideways. The markets are in the grip of late summer slowness. The eventfulness of some recent weeks has subsided. But if you think that traders are using this calm period to catch some breath, you would be wrong. The overall...

Coinrule

The Widowmaker trade became famous in the 1990s and 2000s. It was a bet on the price of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) going down. Given the Japanese government's ever growing debt levels, many traders assumed that the Bank of Japan would not be able to maintain 0%, or even negative interest rates, permanently. Yet, anyone who bet against JGBs lost for over 3...

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With some exceptions, Ethereum has been a pain trade throughout most of this cycle. Major rallies for Bitcoin, Solana and various meme coins saw the majority of gains this cycle. Ethereum is still up considerably from its 2022/23 lows but relatively less. But this was about to change, or so the expectation of many went. Ethereum Spot ETFs finally began trading on...

Coinrule

It is easy to tell the story of Bitcoin’s price movement this year. We first saw a nearly parabolic rise in price following the ETF approval. Bitcoin's value then fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000 for several months. Momentum was building up for a breakout either upwards or downwards. The more the traditionally slower summer months approached, the less likely...

Coinrule

The bull market of 2024 has lost steam. Bitcoin's price, which was initially pushed up by ETF flow and the momentum surrounding its halving, has been slowly retreating since it briefly reached a new All Time High in March this year. Altcoins are mostly experiencing a depressing market in 2024. Except for a brief memecoin frenzy, the prices of most projects are...

Coinrule

An Echo Bubble is not a concept familiar to traditional finance traders. In Crypto, the concept was popularised by the famous trader known as GCR. It's the idea that a mini-bubble 'echoes' a previous big bubble in a subsequent time period. In 2019, Crypto markets saw a short-lived echo bubble that followed the 2017 rally. Given how immense the 2021 market grew,...

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A few weeks of limited volatility and ranging between the $60k and FWB:67K range for Bitcoin are keeping traders in suspense. This was well captured by a few days of relatively low inflows/outflows to the Bitcoin ETFs over the last week. The trend seems to have turned however as this week saw $726m of inflows so far. In times of little price action, crypto...

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After rallying to a new Bitcoin all-time high in March, markets had looked without momentum for weeks. New catalysts such as an Ethereum ETF approval look very unlikely. The launch of new Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong has not attracted meaningful volumes. The much-anticipated announcement of the Eigenlayer token in the Ethereum ecosystem led to more...