ConnerM500

ConnerM500

Structurally, the SPX has printed a higher low compared to the previous day, with the weekly low at 5863 and the higher low at 5785. A break below 5800 opens the door to 5785; a break below 5785, implies an outside day with major support at 5765/5760. If bulls cannot reclaim the 5815/5825 zone, this would be interpreted as a backtest of the breakdown zone from...

ConnerM500

The SPX Options Expiration (OPEX) cycle can be a powerful signal for predicting short term pivot points in the market. We classify each expiration into one of two categories, positive gamma or negative gamma. This is based on the notional market gamma for that expiration, in other words we take all the options that expire that day and net out the gamma exposure....

ConnerM500

💡 SPX 0DTE Trading - Feb 27’23 4040/4045 Call Credit Spread Feb 27’23 4040/4045 Call Credit Spread Premium $95 Nearly every metric this morning is supportive for higher prices, ADD +2000, Cyclicals outperforming Defensives, a weaker Dollar and a decline in measures of implied volatility such as the VIX. Nonetheless, SPX is already up 1.2% with both the 5M and...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX 0DTE Trading - Dec 14’22 Butterfly Strangle (Low risk/high reward) Dec 14’22 3925/3935/3945 Butterfly Put (Pin:Low on chart) Dec 14’22 4095/4105/4115 Butterfly Call (Pin:High on chart) Net Debit: $60 Max Profit: $940 Despite the “pump and dump” activity yesterday, positioning was bullish with calls being added overhead. There was +7% increase in SPX call...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX 0DTE Trading - Nov 28’22 4025/4030 Bear Call Spread Credit Received: $95 The equity net short positioning is gone, but we are far from a meaningful net long. Skew has caught a bid (put demand > call demand) lately as participants have closed out equity shorts. The increase in skew suggests people are switching into hedging the downside via puts, instead of...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX Beyond 0dte Trading - Oct 28’22 3885 20Wide Butterfly Debit: $85 Max Profit: $1,915 *Will be scaling into the position with multiple tranches. Hey everyone!, I have been trading alot of 0dte Butterfly Spreads with much success and given the attractive risk/reward profile I've been using this strategy for swing trade ideas primarily on SPX. The notes below...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX 0dte Trading - Oct 26’22 3770/3775 3890/3895 Iron Condor Credit: $85 The 1H has remained in overbought territory since last Friday and is overdue for pause/pullback. $3,900 remains the key level on the upside and is considered our best case scenario this week. On the downside, $3,800 is now strong support. There is positive drift if SPX remains above the...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX 0dte Trading - Oct 10’22 3575/3580 3680/3685 Iron Condor Premium collected: $95 per contract A key level on the downside remains $3,600 and $3,700 on the upside. We don't see a reason for participants to get overly convicted one way or the other or sell volatility until there is more clarity on inflation and ultimately the forward path of monetary policy....

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX 0dte Trading - Oct 3’22 3690 10 Wide Butterfly Debit: $30 Max Profit: $970 Risk/Reward: 1:31 Exact same setup as our Wednesday play last week which led to a pin and of course huge profits. (linked below) As per our morning note: "We think upside risk is elevated as indicators suggest that this market is now deeply oversold on a short term basis. In...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 SPX 0dte Trading - Sept 28’22 3720 10 Wide Butterfly Debit: $30 Max Profit: $970 Risk/Reward: 1:31 We think upside risk is elevated as indicators suggest that this market is now deeply oversold. In addition markets remain put heavy with VIX elevated and should this bearish trade start to unwind or participants reach for calls, dealers will be chasing deltas...

ConnerM500 Updated 

Another quiet session... the calm before tomorrow's CPI release. We had two ideas on how to play today's market, both expressed on this chart. 💡 July 12’22 3820/3825/3885/3890 Iron Condor $80 Premium Received (per contract) 12:21 PM Time of Entry or 💡 July 12'22 3845/3860/3875 Butterfly 1 by 2 by 1 Risk is to the downside.

ConnerM500

SPX 0dte Income Trading - June 8’22 4105/4100 Bull Put Spread 💡 June 8’22 4105/4100 Bull Put Spread $80 Premium Received (per contract) 85% Probability of Profit (at entry) 9:47 AM Time of Entry 4150/4160 has been a real chop zone lately and the market eventually resolves lower and this could be the case again today however, the fact that we’ve held the...

ConnerM500

SPX 0dte Income Trading - June 3’22 4160/4165 Bear Call Spread I’m posting this trade idea late therefore it may not be actionable anymore, however, this was our trade from this morning, 💡 June 3’22 4160/4165 Bear Call Spread $95 Premium Received (per contract) 85% Probability of Profit (at entry) 9:55 AM Time of Entry SPX gapped down as yields spiked after a...

ConnerM500 Updated 

SPX 0dte Income Trading - May 31’22 4175/4180 Bear Call Spread SPX opened in overbought territory on multiple timeframes, 5M, 15M and most significantly the 1H as price found resistance at the upper band of the rising channel on Friday. Last week's rally did not appear to be supported by material call buying which makes rallies subject to quick reversals....

ConnerM500

SPX 0dte Income Trading - May 13’22 4960/3965 4070/4075 Iron Condor Equities squeezed higher this morning, PPC, VIX and Most shorted stocks supportive for higher prices. Short covering should keep a bid under the market today and this grinding action may persist for most of the day with possible EOD melt up. 5M and 15M overbought, could see a pullback shortly,...

ConnerM500

SPX 0dte Income Trading 💡 May 6’22 4175/4180 Bear Call Spread In $85, Out $35 Re-entered on the call side 💡 May 6’22 4160/4165 Bear Call Spread In $85, Profit Target 50%, 2x Stop Expecting move down to 4050, if that gives way 4000 major support (high open interest) WHAT IS 0DTE TRADING? 0dte or zero days to expiration refer to the last trading day for an...

ConnerM500 Updated 

SPX 0dte Income Trading - April 25’22 4285/4290 Bear Call Spread 💡 April 25’22 4285/4290 Bear Call Spread $85 Premium Received (per contract) 86% Probability of Profit (at entry) 9:46 AM Time of Entry 15M ORB Trade 50% Profit Target, 2x Stop WHAT IS 0DTE TRADING? 0dte or zero days to expiration refer to the last trading day for an option contract. The...

ConnerM500 Updated 

💡 April 6’22 4425/4420 Bull Put Spread $80 Premium Received (per contract) 86% Probability of Profit (at entry) 10:15 AM Time of Entry This is a counter trend trade, wrote below the demand zone of 4465-4445, there sits the 50 DMA, 20 DMA, 50 WMA, and the 4450 negative gamma strike. VIX 24.6, Implied move of 1.54%, any relief rally should see some crush in the...