CosmicDust

CosmicDust

Price needs to hold (and improve) from current level, or a deep plunge is very likely based on 2000 and 2008 chart patterns.

CosmicDust

For long term investors, RSI on the SPY monthly chart is at an inflection point. From historical perspective it can turn backup or dip below 50. At this point risk award profile is not favorable. Might be a good idea to sell into rallies until RSI moves decisively about 50, as shown the historical green vertical lines on the chart, and that is the time to get back...

CosmicDust

Overall, GBTC is still weak but I think a counter-trend rally might be in the store. Technically, price and RSI are diverging which is a positive sign, MACD also turned positive (on the daily chart). I am targeting $41.6 with a loss stop at $29.5. So I risk roughly 10% for a potential gain of 30%.

CosmicDust

Given bitcoin had 2 instances of dropping more than 80% in its history, I think it might be in its 3rd of such big move. A simple extrapolation indicates it might bottom around April 2022 with a price tag $12,000. People see it differently and have different views and that is more than healthy and OK. Definitely I can be wrong but I personally will not touch...

CosmicDust

TLT chart pattern suggested it might be bottomed and ready for 40% gain (as Dec 2013 and Feb 2017). 10% draw down is possible, but given the potential gain the risk is worthy to take. So risk 10% loss for potential 40% gain.

CosmicDust Updated 

DoubleLine Gundlach said this year is the year of commodities. I took a look at DJP it indeed looks very attractive. RSI is above 50, MACD is positive and price is above 10 month MA and the MA itself is flat to turning up! I think it is a buy if it can close above $25.50 on a monthly basis.

CosmicDust Updated 

MACD is negative, RSI is below 50, price is below 10 month MA, long term trend line broke, 6/10 month MA crossed.

CosmicDust Updated 

It has multiple breakouts. RSI, MACD, and long term moving averages are all favorable. I speculate it will revisit all time high in a year or two. Buy dip and accumulate.

CosmicDust Updated 

This is the monthly SPY chart. All I can see is bear market is here and I do not know how deep it will go. I am stepping out of the market within the next couple of weeks.

CosmicDust Updated 

Looks like it is about to break out and go above 50 DMA. The plan is to buy the breakout, and target $5 to $10 gain a share in about 2 weeks. Set a stop around $14.50 and be comfortable with about $2 loss a share if the trade did not go as expected. Overall feeling is the trade is favorable once breaking out, as MACD is above 0 and RSI is above 50.

CosmicDust Updated 

This study compares current peak with peaks in 2012 and 2016. If history repeats, TLT is heading down from now through 2021, and bottom around Feb 2022.

CosmicDust Updated 

This is a correlation study to TLT (see ) TLT in 2012 and 2016 was down around 22% and in the same time frames SPY was up 40+ %. If history repeats, SPY could rise to $400 level around Feb 2022. That would be about 20% gain from today's level (as of 8/15/2020), not bad. Note market tend to surprise most people most of the time and any prediction is just that: a...

CosmicDust Updated 

Last super bull cycles lasted 303 - 403 months. Current one has been about 90 months. Even though market looks toppy, it may actually keep making higher highs and higher lows for 200 more months! So it is important that we have an open mind for all possible market directions. Note right now market is still trying to break out from the megaphone pattern...

CosmicDust

On a weekly close basis, it made a higher low and a higher high, pretty typical trend changing indication. Though a bit early but looks promising. RSI is 49.96, MACD is positive. Weekly volume is decent.

CosmicDust

Still not quite there as the price is approaching the resistance line and MACD is still negative. But RSI went above 50. If breaking out, next resistance is around $34 price level.

CosmicDust

It is breaking out both for the price and the RSI, RSI is above 50 and MACD is positive.

CosmicDust

XLF had a double breakout last Friday (Aug 7 2020) with above average volume . RSI is strong but MACD is negative for now. The plan is to buy it around this level with a stop around $24. Expect to hold it for about a month with $3 to $7 gain per share if it goes well.

CosmicDust

Price target $12, but wait for short term pullback to $8.5 before getting in.