CosmicDust

CosmicDust Updated 

Market rallied nicely for the past several weeks but from long term perspective, it is not a buy until a higher high breakout.

CosmicDust Updated 

The risk/award is favorable IMO.

CosmicDust Updated 

RSI above 50, MACD positive and price is staging a breakout I guess. Rising inflation is good for precious metals and commodities.

CosmicDust Updated 

RSI is in bullish zone, MACD is positive. Much more room to the upside (20% ~ 60%) but limited room to the downside (10% ~ 15%) so from risk/award perspective, it is attractive. I think it might spike fast from this level. IMHO it is a strong buy but do not forget a stop to shield down side risk.

CosmicDust

Looks like all things are lined up perfectly for TLT to run.

CosmicDust

Just want to start the new year with some positive tune: if history of 1942 - 1966 and 1982 - 1999 repeats, the current market could still have 10 more years of gains ahead and could triple the current price!

CosmicDust

If past cases work again, a 6 months to 12 months 15% to 30% rally can be expected. Quite likely bottom is forming, and thus good time to scale in. What can go wrong? price dips below 40 week moving average and back in to the downward wedge, that would be the signal to bail.

CosmicDust Updated 

Price and RSI divergence is concerning but no sell signal on monthly chart. To sell I need a price pullback below 10 month MA, a 6 month MA and 10 month MA cross, and a much weaker RSI (close or below 50) and a negative MACD.

CosmicDust

MACD has been negative for the past 2 months, RSI has been below long term trend line for the past 2 months, and price has been below 10 month moving average for the past 2 months. Similar situation in 2000, 2008, and 2015 told us the chance things go bad is HIGH. 2015 case told us we can get back into the market once there is a meaningful breakout together with...

CosmicDust

Good chance short term bottom is in. Not sure how strong it can rebound but a stop at $165 is a good idea. If it fails to challenge all time high and goes back down from a lower high, chance is good QQQ top is in, and mindset has to change to short rally from buy dip.

CosmicDust

Today's technical profile looks similar to 2003 and 2009. Waiting for a buy signal some time around year end. Aggressive investor can start to accumulate with 5-10% stop.

CosmicDust

The chart suggests dollar is bottoming short term. I would accumulate at this level with a stop around $23. A strengthened dollar in the second half of the year would indicate a stronger economy, higher rate and stronger stock market driven by higher earnings/profits.

CosmicDust

Is it going to break out (with a 40 week MA ticking up)? Quite possible in the next several weeks. We will watch this ratio closely as each time it breaks out, market is in rout.

CosmicDust

MACD is negative, RSI is below 50. Price is still above trend line. A price breakdown here may signals trouble ahead.

CosmicDust

Horrible market today but has not triggerred my sell signal just yet. My sell signal: price below 10M MA and lost red support line and 3/5 Month EMA crossed, RSI and MACD lost red supports. Note the callouts on the chart are the sell/buy reference points based on 3/5 month EMA cross signal only.

CosmicDust

RSI is around 50, MACD is still negative. The price itself is in the twilight zone but it will have to break out or break down. Need to watch this closely as it has definite implication for asset allocation.

CosmicDust

Note RSI and MACD divergence. Will not surprise to see 10 - 20% correction in Q1 (targeting blue support line, around $135). Watch the support lines closely for possible breakage entering 2018.

CosmicDust

High chance AAPL can fall between $133 to $110. Short $168 and cover $176.