CosmicDust

CosmicDust

Overall trend is bullish, but a correction from overbought to 40 week MA is very likely. Note both MACD and RSI are facing long term resistance. Might be a good 2 to 4 months of window for global stocks, commodities and precious metal, before the bullish trend resumes (if it can).

CosmicDust

Both RSI and MACD are on extreme oversold condition. I think it is a buy with a stop around $117.

CosmicDust

Last time the wedge exhausted, SPY dropped about 12%. It is at it again. So be prepared (buy protection). I fear when everyone cheers.

CosmicDust

EWZ bounced up from 40 week MA, coincidental with RSI rising channel support. Wait for a breakout (and a positive MACD) for buy confirmation.

CosmicDust

It has been building a solid base... Buy breakout at about $8.50, with stop at about $7.50

CosmicDust

Current setting is similar to December 2012, where a breakout produced several hundreds percent gains. Buy breakout here at about $18.50 with a stop at about $16.50, as it has the potential to $33.

CosmicDust

TLT is approaching major long term support line. RSI oversold. Expect some rebound (might be close to 40 week MA, which is $130 level).

CosmicDust

Looks like XOP is on its way to close above 2 major resistances. RSI and MACD all looks good. Likely next level is around $43 - $44.

CosmicDust

November is ending and GREK is able to meaningfully close above 10 month MA the very first time since mid 2014. It made a higher low last month, and its trading volume began to pick up. MACD is positive. RSI still needs improvement (like to see it goes above 45). Also want to see it making a higher high (close above $8.41 monthly). For risk takers, now might be a...

CosmicDust

Market on edge. If no year end rally, the new year is going to be really interesting. An observation on 10 year rate: during 2000 - 2003 bear, 10 year dropped from 6 to 4 (roughly), during 2007 - 2009 bear, 10 dropped from 4 to 2. Right now 10 year sits at 1.81. if a bear is coming, can it drop to 0? We will have to see.

CosmicDust

TBT had a great run for the past several months and is now at resistance. Note the dominating trend is still down. We need to see a breakout, a higher low, and a higher high to confirm the trend change.

CosmicDust

Bond rate has been rising for the past 3 months and now it is approaching the upper resistance channel. It can break out, or back down from here.

CosmicDust

Given the uncertainty of bond market, IMO mining stocks might be one of "safe heavens" if stock market is in trouble. The ration was not able to capture May high (so it made a lower high in October). It is now turning down again. Note the decisive downward pointing 40 week MA.

CosmicDust

The ratio is near the double resistance, and looks like is working on a breakout. We will know more in the next couple of weeks. So far RSI broke out, MACD is positive, 40 week MA is turning upward. If this ratio breaks out, we will reduce even more bond holdings (and may start to short bonds), and move into equalities (not necessarily US stocks).

CosmicDust

We will see if we have a case to short ITB by end of year or early next spring.

CosmicDust

Housing market may be ready to roll over. I guess spring 2017 will be telling. We will watch and will act according.

CosmicDust

It is more obvious now, as VWO has been outperforming for several months. As the ratio is still turning, we should be moving into emerging market but only gradually.

CosmicDust

RSI and MACD look good. Waiting price for confirmation...