CrosbyVenture

CrosbyVenture

February 20th - March 18th saw a 50% drawdown to AXP, this is a long term play, but also a short-term trade with size.

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Looks like the US is doing a temporary border closing. In conjunction with a flight to safety (USD Index at all time highs), it's a brutal move for USDCAD. 2016 highs being re-tested here. I'd say you have to take the other side of this (Long CAD) as there will be a retrace back to normalcy. Trade to continue between countries.

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We're seeing an absolute historic repricing of NYSE:BA , crossing $100/share, versus $440 ATH in early 2019, these levels haven't been seen since 2014. Up next we have a large trough of volume around $85 - $75. Historic times.

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Beyond Meat had quite the run-up following their Nasdaq debut, but today we see them trading below their IPO price for the first time. Despite their success in getting to public markets quickly, there are questions as to their overall liquidity. Free cash flow took a big hit in Q4, and similarly so after Q1 earnings in late February. For some context:...

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No doubt financial leverage is going to unwind. For Caesars, a private equity darling. That unwind is maybe the most painful I've seen. Loan facilities have call rights when stocks dip below certain levels, most likely, we've cleared those levels here. The biggest PE firms with stakes are going to be looking for strategic opportunities here, but assuming they...

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The Dow just closed 10%, making it the largest single-day point decline since 1987. The main issue I have with this though is, there is no catalyst in the near-term to reverse things. The selling really just compounds on itself now. Very little of this actually correlate to underlying fundamentals... which is even more worrying. Meanwhile, the dollar remains...

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The 2009 trendline is no joke. Break this and see what happens.

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Undoubtedly, the HFT world is making a killing with the recent volatility. I've been a longtime investor in VIRT, but just watching this go up feels a bit sickening.

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Can't really make a trade here, but thinking about the relative value of other businesses, Alcoa getting below $2B valuation with $128M in FCF is a weird place to be. Other industrials could quickly nab them to maintain supply chains and consolidate the group.

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Seeing historic lows in Ford makes me think their lack of direction has finally been priced in, but compared to $TSLA it still seems wrong in some way... Ford's market cap now runs around $23B, while $TSLA is north of $110B, even despite a large % downturn. That said... free cashflow for Tesla just recently eclipsed Ford.

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In November, Charles Schwab announced plans to buy $TDA for a little over $26 billion in current market value. Not really talked about? The terms of the deal. The acquisition, which plans to go through by Q4 of 2020, was basically a "stock swap". From Reuters: "As part of the deal, expected to close in the second half of 2020, Ameritrade stockholders will get...

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Pretty incredible to see we're back at February 6th, 2018 highs. From futures charts, looks like there's no bid.

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While the YTD performance looks pretty flat, the last year has really shown a different story for E*TRADE. It seems apparent the TD <> Schwab proposed merger leaves some questions as to E*TRADE's future... however, as one of the largest volume players... it could be a great deal for someone with a strategic direction or alternative business line.

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Not that I know these brands super well, but it's awesome to see retail expanding beyond brick and mortar, each of these is now worth $1B+. Interesting to note, NASDAQ:REAL 's market cap just exploded (after the IPO equity lockup expired... went from below $200M to $1B+... the stock didn't react.

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Attached is a chart of TGS-NOPEC, it's a great chart, but I'm just testing out some things.

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Today I read "Over Half of All American Shoppers Will Subscribe to Amazon Prime Next Year". Sure, the headline sounds like clickbait, but the estimate is pretty spot on from eMarketer. Even if it's not next year.... if by 2021, Amazon has 1/2 of the US subscribing to their Prime products is jaw-dropping. You can read the full article here . Amazon has been...

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Updated 

A single day drop of over 25%, and a weekly drop of more than 35% of market value... seems an over-reaction, but who am I to say such things...

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Last quarter was the first time Apple's R&D budget fell since 2017... But look at the trend since 2014... Nobody comes near this scale of R&D spend (besides NASDAQ:AMZN ).