When talking about Bitcoin or Crypto in general you usually will hear something like this from Traders/Investors that are bullish on Bitcoin: The Bitcoin halving every 4 years initiates a new bull market. By that logic a new Crypto bullmarket should start in late April of 2024, when the next halving is due, right? However, if I look at the price behaviour of...
In prior bull markets Bitcoin usually made a local low when hitting its bull market support bands. Buying at the bull market support bands has been, once again, in this bull market since early 2023 a great strategy to build up your BTC bags. It, so far, has a hit rate of 100 %! And once again Bitcoin is, right now trading at its lower bull market support band and...
If history repeats itself - and so far history has repeated itself for Bitcoin every 4 years, we have not seen the true face of the Bitcoin bull market yet. Let's have a closer look at where and when things could really go ballistic to the upside by analysing its so-called logarithmic regression: You will see 3 different areas of importance on this chart: 1. A...
The Bitcoin halving of 2024 is approaching fast and will take place somewhere between April 18th and April 25th. With the currently prices of Bitcoin above 50K USD I have to ask myself the question when the next swing low in this bull market is going to take place. Since this bull market started we saw the time period between these bull market lows being 13, then...
Crucial point in time for Bitcoin at the moment. During strong bull runs we normally see, sooner or later, corrections, which usually happen when Bitcoin breaks through its 8 weeks simple moving average (on a weekly close) with a pull back to the bull market support bands. After the (fake news) that the Bitcoin Spot ETF will be delayed we actually saw Bitcoin...
Transaction fees have reached surreal levels in Bitcoin with almost 17 Mio USD spent in transaction fees daily. Although there is not a direct correlation between transaction fees and the price of Bitcoin periods with high fees usually, sooner or later, resulted in a negative price reaction for Bitcoin. At this point I would not be surprised to see a price...
With the recent surge in the price of Bitcoin the sentiment on social media has totally changed again from super bearish to ultra positive. Some influencers (especially on Twitter/X) are calling for 1 Mio USD per Bitcoin in 2024... While being (very) positive for Bitcoin myself in the long run the swing trader in me is calling for caution as the markets rarely do...
New short signal from my SSG trading system in Salesforce (CRM). This one tends to still run a bit before going into the direction of the signal, so I would be careful if you want to directly short the stock or trade it using a CFD or something like this. I will look into an options position later today and then update here again wether I am taking the trade.
Long Signal from my SSG Trading system. The system usually works very well on this pair. I sold a put with a strike of 0.8575 Expiry Jan 10th 24 to trade this.
My SSG system produced a sell signal on JPM. Volatility not so attractive to short calls imho, so I am looking into buying puts currently, maybe financed by a short call...
McDonalds looking like it is getting close to a pull back. First sell signal triggered with yesterdays closing on my SSG trading system. Ideally would like to sell Calls with a strike of 300, however the premium not high enough. Looking into building up a long put position instead.
Just got a "Sell Alert" from my customer SSG Indicator on Apple. Last 2 times this happened we saw the price quickly pull back into the direction of the 100 days EMA. Looking actually to trade this by short-selling Calls with with a strike of 200 that expire in 1 month. However, due to Thanksgiving I expect that the volatility is not going to be very high on a...
During the last 2 Cycles Bitcoin bottomed approx 547 days before the next halving. If history repeats itself this is the time now to accumulate Bitcoin....
Today's data which will be released at 12:30 UTC will be the most important economic number for the last month and could be the catalyst to drive Crypto - and stock prices for the next weeks. Depending on what number we will see I have created different scenarios for price development of Bitcoin. Lets press thumbs that we finally see inflation ticking down a bit!
One of my favorite trading patterns when trading Bitcoin is the so-called Bollinger Squeeze. After prolonged times with lower volatility we usually see a violent breakout to the north or south. You can identify these times with low volatility easily with the help of plain vanilla Bollinger bands. Whenever the upper and lower band come close to each other it...
Looking back into history 1 indicator that was extremly accurate in predicting stock market lows was the inflation rate. In times of very high inflation the stock market low was in once we saw inflation going back again. So a good indicator to time your investments into risk on assets such as stock & cryptocurrencies would be to wait until we see the inflation...
The last three times after the FOMC minutes the stock markets took a nose dive and went to lower lows in the upcoming weeks. If histroy repeats itself we could see the S&P 500 possibly dropping under 4000 points. Since the Cryptocurrency markets are in bearish scenarios also heavily correlated to the S&P 500 this could also mean, for example, Bitcoin attacking...