CycleTargets

CycleTargets Updated 

Tech printed a triple divergence on a daily timeframe today between price and MACD, with a bearish engulfing candle close. Even if today's high holds, we are likely to see a retrace higher of this downside move in the first half of next week. Assuming the high holds, we are likely to see a pullback to the 50MA around ~ 200, or 3.5% lower than today close. A...

CycleTargets Updated 

XBI is pushing back into strong resistance in the range on 96.5 - 100. Looking for a higher high with momentum divergence to setup another round of weakness.

CycleTargets Updated 

The semiconductor index has been one of the best performing areas of the market over the last few quaters, and has continued to be strong since the late October bottom. The index is coming into overhead fibonacci resistance, and with weakening momentum starting to show up, similar to July last year, a pullback here looks likely. It seems hard to imagine with...

CycleTargets Updated 

AMD recently pulled back to the prior 2021 ATH after the recent earnings release. As long as the ~165 support holds, the price action is building a bull flag that should eventually resolve higher after working off some of the recent overbought momentum. Resistance could come from multiple significant overhead measured targets between 209 and 233, which could...

CycleTargets Updated 

Bitcoin is currently re-testing the significant supply region from December 2021, where price spent almost a month failing to move higher after the initial move down from ATH. Since putting in a final bottom in late 2022, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly along with other risk assets. However, if this trend has been a corrective ABC move, the pattern looks near...

CycleTargets Updated 

ZM longs have been absolutely eviscerated since 2020. One of the quintessential names of the 2020 exuberance, it has since seen a 90% drawdown from the 2020 high to the 2023 low late last year. However, ZM has seen a trading range between 60 and 75 for almost a year now. This basing has clear analogs to Wyckoff accumulation, and the failed breakdown in October...

CycleTargets Updated 

Nio broke out of a descending wedge pattern this past week. The daily MACD histogram has swung back to positive, and has some room to get to a zero line reset or potentially start a larger upside move. The initial measured target of the wedge breakout would be in the ~ 7.4-7.5 range, which represents a ~ 2.7:1 RR at Fridays close.

CycleTargets

Gold miners have shown relative weakness to the metals since topping in 2020, and that looks likely to continue in the near term. However, when this consolidation completes, the mining stocks should once again shine and starts catching up, potentially in the next couple of months. For this reason, the time has come to keep this group on your watch list as a...

CycleTargets

DXY has been consolidating for a couple months after the large pullback that started in September. This consolidation is expected to continue over the new few months, with price expected to test at least the 107 level. It is reasonable to expect the 110 breakdown level to be tested before another high timeframe round of weakness that will eventually break below...

CycleTargets Updated 

With the recent deep retrace, this presents a long setup opportunity with favorable risk/reward. Using the recent 621 low as a stop, 805 would be an initial measured move trade target. Assuming an entry close to today's closing price, this would be close to a 4:1 trade. We think there is potential to ~ 910, which would be closer to 6.5:1. Trade setup is...

CycleTargets

BTC has reached our long term price target and is very oversold on longer time frame (weekly +) indicators. Shorter term indicators would show a strong divergence on a reversal at our demand zone. In the near term, a mean reverting move back to low-to-mid 30k range would be expected, but this low could turn into a more durable bottom for a move to new all time highs.

CycleTargets Updated 

MSFT has followed through nicely after bouncing out of our expected long term support zone below 254. Price recently consolidated after reaching the 1.618 fib extension, but has held short term moving average support and now looks ready to continue higher. Resistance could come in at 283.6, but we think the higher likelihood is to see price re-test the overhead...

CycleTargets Updated 

We are looking for one final push over the coming days to the overhead resistance level of 4286-4322 SPX. We expect that resistance to lead to a pullback into mid-to-late July and look to sell longs into this zone. Equivalent levels ~ 4311-4330 ES, 428.6-431.4 SPY.

CycleTargets Updated 

BTCUSD has made significant progress towards completing the long term price pattern. Our expectation is to see ~ 23.6k as an ideal price target, in a support zone of 22.4-24.2k, before putting in a significant bottom to complete the corrective price action that started in April 2021.