Da_Prof

Da_Prof Updated 

Happy New Year! The indicators that make up the Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator (BSTI) are bottoming in aggregate. I've been searching for nice daily swing trade indicators and have been swapping them out in the BSTI. Therefore, the BSTI has gone through changes, but it is almost ready for prime time. I'm thinking of changing out one more indicator. The solid ones...

Da_Prof Updated 

During this current BTC cycle, major uptrends in global liquidity have corresponded to major uptrends in the market 72ish days later. The last major uptrend in liquidity is about to run its course, pause, and then downtrend. If this relationship holds, we are at or near at least a pause in the local up trend. I have my popcorn ready to see if this plays out....

Da_Prof Updated 

The Coinbase Premium (CBP) is currently signaling "oversold". This is an indicator which identifies extremes in the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC on Coinbase in relation to the average of the Binance and Bybit CRYPTOCAP:BTC price. The CBP has done a pretty good job over the last few years of identifying levels of high and low risk for the price of $BTC.

Da_Prof Updated 

Why is USDT.D so important in defining a CRYPTOCAP:BTC top? Because, when BTC is in price discovery, there is no previous price action to determine where we might expect a reaction based on price. Therefore, all we really have are fib extensions and speculation if we solely look at past CRYPTOCAP:BTC price. Fear not, USDT.D gives us previous dominance action...

Da_Prof Updated 

The Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator triggered a buy signal. None of the individual indicators have triggered a bottom, but the overall "risk" is below the trigger line. Note: I know it is unfair to publish this idea when the BSTI isn't available to y'all, but what are you gonna do? It isn't quite ready for prime time, but I wanted to make y'all aware of the signal.

Da_Prof Updated 

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), RP (Realized Price), and to a lesser extent, the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed) are getting close to triggering. The last time a few top indicators on the BTI got close to triggering, we had a pullback. I think we see a continued rally near-term, but then a pull-back to cool off the indicators before they fully...

Da_Prof Updated 

The Coinbase Premium Indictor shows the CBP risk is high. The previous times the CBP premium has reached these levels, CRYPTOCAP:BTC generally started a range or downtrend.

Da_Prof Updated 

According to past cycles, there is still a lot of room to the upside for the risk metric.

Da_Prof Updated 

The BTSI has signaled a high risk area for BTC. These can happen and price can still go up for a while until a bear deviation. The bars pattern is what happened the last time.

Da_Prof Updated 

Recently, BTC has traded for a large amount of time in ranging environments. These ranges have started with a local range high and then an initial 3-tap accumulation (i.e., a local low and then two sweeps of that low) before making a solid attempt at the range highs. The sweeps of the lows are meant to shake people out and provide fuel to try to break higher. The...

Da_Prof Updated 

The BTC risk is still at the mid-7s. With a max of 13 on the risk, that means we are still likely far from the cycle top. There are a few indicators that are nearing top signals (NUPL, RP extension, CVDD extension, PDM), but most indicators are far from their top signals. We had a much needed cool down period for BTC to reset some of the overheated indicators.

Da_Prof Updated 

The PCTR indicator is only just at the midpoint for BTC. We have a significant amount of time left in this bull market according to this indicator. There will be pullbacks, but the PTCR says we have room to continue to the upside in this cycle.

Da_Prof Updated 

The hash rate capitulation (HRC) indicator used in the Bitcoin Bottom Indictor (BBI) has fired. The HRC indicator measures the rate of change of the hash rate. Steadily increasing hash rate is a sign of health of the bitcoin network. This indicator uses moving averages (20- and 100-day) of the hash rate to indicate when a decrease in the rate of change is has...

Da_Prof

The Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator is signaling low risk, with multiple individual indicators triggering low risk. If the bull run is continuing, which is likely in my opinion, this is a great time to think BTC is ready to rise.

Da_Prof

If you look at CRYPTOCAP:BTC price action this cycle, it has been very well predicted by global liquidity. The global liquidity vs. BTC price relationship is modeled by the Bitcoin Global Liquidity (BGL) indicator. This indicator shows how changes in liquidity have made it to the price action of CRYPTOCAP:BTC in 72 days (see the blue boxes on the BGL and chart...

Da_Prof

Aligning the bottoms of the Pi-Cycle Top Risk (PCTR)/Deflection (PCTD) indicator shows that this cycle has shown more similar behavior to the 2016-2017 cycle than the 2020-2021 cycle. So far we have had two major waves of the PCTR/PCTD, just as in the 2016-2017 cycle. The 2020-2021 cycle only had one. The third larger wave in the 2016-2017 cycle led to the...

Da_Prof Updated 

While nothing is perfect, the movement of global money supply this cycle has forecasted bitcoin price movements exceptionally well. Previous cycles, money supply more overlapped than predicted, except when the 2020 massive increase in money supply led BTC price higher. The lag between global money supply highs and lows and BTC highs and lows this cycle has been...

Da_Prof

Similar to March 8th timeframe (i.e., the previous local top). Some BTI top indicators have started to come close to fully triggering. Currently the NUPL and Realized Price (RP) indicators are getting near a top signal. No indicator in the BTI has fully triggered yet, but it would be wise to watch the BTI closely.