Daily-Price-Action

Daily-Price-Action

That intersection at 128.40 will be my target should we get a favorable short setup. Keep in mind that non-farm payroll is out in just a few minutes at 8:30 am EST. As such, I’m going to wait for the dust to settle following the event before considering an entry. I also want to wait until next week. Taking a position on a Friday carries more risk due to the...

Daily-Price-Action

In the near term, the 0.8925 area will likely attract an influx of offers. Any bearish price action from here could provide an attractive short setup. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that bulls want to take prices to 0.8980. This area served as resistance back in late July and subsequently attracted bids on the 12th and 13th of September. I’m going to hold...

Daily-Price-Action

From a technical standpoint, I’m only concerned with where each session closes at 5 pm EST. Trading anything else would open the door to false breaks. Look no further than last week’s failed intraday breakouts above trend line resistance. It’s going to take a daily close (5 pm EST) above 113.15 resistance to extend the current rally. Such a break would expose the...

Daily-Price-Action

EURUSD bears finally managed a daily close (5 pm EST) below channel support last week. We have discussed the potential for a shift lower since the pair carved out the September 8th bearish pin bar from 1.2040. Monday’s close of 1.1845 broke channel support along with the 1.1875 horizontal support area. Sellers took control of the following two sessions until...

Daily-Price-Action

There are two key levels I’m keeping an eye on at the moment. The first is the horizontal level at 0.9770. The area has capped every advance since the pair closed below it on May 19th. It’s also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement when measuring from the December 2016 high to the current 2017 low. The second level of interest is the trend line that extends from the...

Daily-Price-Action

The plan from here is straightforward. Any retest of the 1.2420 area as new support could produce a favorable buying opportunity. I’m going to stand aside and let the pair mean revert before watching for bullish price action from the 1.2420 area. As long as buyers keep prices above the 1.2420 mark on a daily closing basis, 1.2770 is the target. Alternatively, a...

Daily-Price-Action

In the most recent weekly forecast, I mentioned that a close below 1.3445 or above 1.3600 could trigger the next move. So far, it appears sellers are eager to drive the price back below the 1.3445 region. That said, without the daily close at 5 pm EST, we don’t have the confirmation needed to act. Furthermore, Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak in the next few...

Daily-Price-Action

A daily close (5 pm EST) below 1.1875 would also expose the August lows near 1.1670. A break there would pave the way for a move toward the mid-July pivot at 1.1490. As always, what happens on the intraday charts doesn’t mean much. Today’s close at 5 pm EST will tell the real story; it will be a crucial one for both buyers and sellers. I remain short from just...

Daily-Price-Action

We have been tracking this ascending trend line on the AUDUSD for several weeks. The first mention was on September 14, just days after the bearish pin bar formed at 0.8065 resistance. Then on Thursday of last week, the pair closed the session below trend line support that extends from the June low. This confirmed the break and established a potential selling...

Daily-Price-Action

Will I buy? Maybe, but not at current levels (112.22). First off, we haven’t had a retest of 111.90 as new support. Second, the 10 and 20 EMAs are lagging below today’s price by 160 pips. That leads me to believe that a pullback or at least some sideways consolidation is likely over the coming sessions. Even if we do get a retest, I won’t act right away....

Daily-Price-Action

The AUDUSD came close to breaking key trend line support during yesterday’s session. But buyers made a stand in the final hours that appears to have averted the breakdown, at least temporarily. If you had this trend line just a few pips higher, yesterday’s session would have signaled a break in support. This is why drawing levels accurately is so important. I...

Daily-Price-Action

Seeing these two highs at the same level on the AUDJPY tends to attract speculation about whether or not this is a double top pattern. But no matter how you look at it, the fact is we don’t have enough information to make that call one way or the other. What we can do is stay patient and use price action to signal what’s likely to happen next. If this does unfold...

Daily-Price-Action

With the way things are currently progressing for the EURUSD, we could see a third retest of the 1.1875 handle as early as this week. Buyers will likely make another stand especially considering channel support which lies just below 1.1875. However, I’m not interested in buying here. I remain short based on the failed attempt to break 1.2040 on September 8th. If...

Daily-Price-Action

By Tuesday at 5 pm EST, EURGBP sellers had secured a 0.9008 close, which was well below our key level at 0.9040. This left us watching for selling opportunities from the 0.9040 area for a move toward 0.8920 and perhaps 0.8780. This week’s aggressive selloff leaves the EURGBP overextended, particularly when we compare today’s price with the 10 and 20 EMAs in the...

Daily-Price-Action

For those who are already short based on the Friday pin bar, a daily close (5 pm EST) below this trend line near 0.7960 could offer a chance to add to your position. It could also provide a favorable selling opportunity to those who are still on the sideline. A daily close below this trend line support would expose the August low at 0.7820. A close below that...

Daily-Price-Action

EURUSD bulls are once again challenging the 2012 low at 1.2040. This is the second retest since the level repelled buyers on August 29th. The pair is also still trending within the ascending channel that extends from the April low at 1.0570. Support and resistance are well defined at this point, which means a test of either level could trigger a move in the...

Daily-Price-Action

The GBPCAD reversed course last month after an aggressive downtrend that took the pair 5,200 pips lower in just over a year. While there’s no guarantee the selloff has ended, last week’s close above 1.7540 was a sign that buyers are back. The 1.7540 area has been a crucial factor for the pound cross. It dates back to 2008 but is better known as the level that...

Daily-Price-Action

The EURUSD is up 160 pips so far this week after catching a bid at trend line support that extends from the current 2017 low. This is a level we discussed over the weekend as one that needed to break down for sellers to gain momentum. From a technical standpoint, the price action is playing out in textbook fashion. Tuesday’s rally put the single currency above...