DanV

DanV Updated  Aug 23, 2021

BTCUSD - having topped on 14th April at $64,895.22 (on Bitstamp) its initial decline appears to be a leading diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 structure completing on 20th July. The rally since then has approached the proximity of 61.8% retracement around $50k - $52k as potential area of structural resistance, in an abc zigzag accompanied with multiple divergences on...

DanV Aug 23, 2020

The earlier published chart suggesting short did not develop as the retracement bounce was still in progress see chart linked below (29th June). This now appears to be complete and therefore, I am republishing the idea with revised/adjust wave counts and associated details. I think it could offers even better level to short from with relatively lower risk. ...

DanV Updated  Jun 29, 2020

Background: The current bearish cycle commenced in February 2018 and it is still intact and has some way to go. In the short term it had some very messy sharp up and down swings, however, it is very likely that it has resumed a longer term bearish trend – see previously published chart in January 2018 lined below. Fundamentally , like most economies, Europe...

DanV Updated  Feb 17, 2020

From 26th June 2019 the BTC appear to have declined in a leading diagonal Wave (a) with low on 23rd October 2019. Since then it could be forming a Running Flat (which are normally 5,3,5 or 3-3-5 structure) where wave “c” fails to retest the high of wave “a”. This is a bearish structure as it suggests the the price lacks the momentum to make normal zigzag...

DanV Updated  May 13, 2019

Background: Based on the price data available on Monthly chart (see below), the USDMXN is in longer term Bullish trend. It formed a major spike high in Jan 2017 and since then it has been in a consolidation, forming higher lows, suggesting strong based being built. The extreme bullish sentiment for MXN might be fostered by the fact that the uncertainties...

DanV Updated  Mar 3, 2019

Background: Since early January 2019 the prospect of soft Brexit outcome has benefited sentiments towards GBP which has rallied from 1.2440 area to recent peak in 1.3350 area. The meaningful vote is scheduled for 12th March which if it fails then further votes on No deal exit is on 13th March and negative outcome will be followed by vote for extension of exit...

DanV Updated  Oct 28, 2018

Over all we are in major bearish cycle for EURUS as per my last chart I published in January 2018 which you can check in the link below. This trend has developed well so far and it is in a corrective phase since August 2018 low which appears to be developing what Elliott Wave theory refers to as flat correction of 3-3-5 formation. Rules for Identifying Flat...

DanV Updated  Oct 3, 2018

Background I don’t have an in depth knowledge of the fundamentals of the 2 economies involved in the currency pair AUDNZD except to say that Australian economy might have larger component dependent on mining resources which is being affected by the trade war between USA & China. This might continue to have impact over several years. Similarly, the 10 Year Yield...

DanV Updated  Aug 29, 2018

There has been growing bearish sentiment for GBP contributed by among other things the lack of progress on Brexit negotiation which might continue. However, it might have been overdone based on COT data as at 21st August and released on 24th August 2018 (please see chart below under update). Whist it is not at absolute extreme level it at a zone where a...

DanV Updated  Jan 16, 2018

In my previous chart of EURUSD, you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference. We did not...

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DanV Jan 9, 2018

Commodity & Futures Trading Commission gather data from various Exchanges and compile which are then released and are available on their Websites - www.cftc.gov Commitment of Traders Data = COT (abberiviation) These data are released on Friday of Each Week after Market Closes. They are based on Positions as close of Tuesday of that week. These are compiled to...

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DanV Updated  Nov 28, 2017

For more details and background please read my article on Long Term Analysis of Oil published recently at www.talkmarkets.com OPEC meeting is schedule on Thursday the 30th November 2017. It is widely anticipated that OPEC members and other cooperating oil producing nations will agree an extension of the production cut beyond March 2018. It remains to be seen if...

DanV Updated  Oct 2, 2017

Background: Since March 2015 low, the actual wave counts has been difficult as we had very overlapping swings in both directions. In the processed the strong rally from Dec 2016 low started with initial trust that do not show clear 5 minor wave and the pull back was confusing before it commenced a very strong rally define in narrow up trending channel, which many...

DanV Updated  Sep 14, 2017

In my original post of Pound Sterling’s Prospects - seeing through the “Brexit” fog published just before the UK’s Brexit vote, a significant low was anticipated towards the late 2016 and early 2017. That low formed in October 2016 at lower than I anticipated. Since then a sustainable rally was anticipated which due to overlapping swings has not bee easy to ride...

DanV Updated  Apr 30, 2017

EURUSD has posted a spike low in March 2015 and subsequently has failed to close below that low on monthly charts on last 2 attempts. This suggests that potentially an important low might be in place and that the EURUSD could continue much higher from here over several months if not more in longer term bullish cycle. See monthly chart below for the details The...

DanV Updated  Apr 3, 2017

My original chart on GBPUSD was published on TalkMarkets just before the BREXIT vote in June 2016. I have recently published an update which you can read here to save me having to type all again - www.talkmarkets.com However, in addition to all the details already highlighted in those 2 publications, to support a bullish view, consider the historical...

DanV Updated  Dec 23, 2016

Background - Bitcoin has limited price history and earlier moves are so volatile and spiky that it makes it very hard to do usual technical analysis. However from my historical charts you will see that I noted Nov 2013 as major wave 3 and was expecting wave 5 to develop from Jan 2015. Yet the price progression and the actual development of pattern call that...

DanV Jun 28, 2016

In my last published chart on GBPUSD and “Brexit” fog (see link below), the suggested target appears to have been met, but feel it happened too quickly. So more sideways action and decline is anticipated. The effect of “Brexit” fog in not just limited to UK as has been noted from the reaction from wider financial market. Eurozone (EU) is intricately linked to...