DanteBouzas

DanteBouzas

Yesterday there was a move down to the lower range around 1890. But will the push lower continue today? If it does and my downside probability becomes smaller than my upside probability than I will add incrementally. The change in the TERR from yesterday to today was bigger than the LERR which gives me more confidence to buy at the lower end of my volatility range.

DanteBouzas

Right now it looks like ETH is making a move to the lower part of the range. if volume is heavy and it breaks out it could cause a big move down to 1800. Around this area or lower I would buy incrementally in 0.25 to 0.50 bps and add to my exposure. im looking for a drop close to the LERR, big ivol premium and large volume.

DanteBouzas

We should be expecting a larger move coming up. Right now ETH is just stable and ranging. The longer it does this, the bigger the move we can expect. Volatility Premium has not moved much but keeps fluctuating between barely premium and discount. when the market state changed to slippy, we broke out of the range a bit but eventually buyers stepped in and brought...

DanteBouzas

ETH has changed market conditions from a sticky market to a slippy market. Implied volatility shifted from a discount to a premium. At these levels it doesnt mean much unless we drop to the lower end of the expected move range. Volume could give another clue if it comes in today at the lower range.

DanteBouzas

Currently ETH implied volatility vs realized volatility is showing a discount, barely. We are in a sticky market because options traders are long volatility and buy and sell the edges to adjust their deltas. If Im bullish ETH, I would be waiting for three things, 1. a move down to the lower end of the expected move range, 2. a volatility premium and 3. above...

DanteBouzas

as of this morning. upside: 7.26% downside: 11.72%

DanteBouzas

If your bullish BTC this would be a great spot to take some off the table so you can reload on the next wave down. im shaving of 0.50 basis points up here.

DanteBouzas

Trade trend: Bullish Lower Dynamic Volatility Range is at 1917 demand zone: 1936 to 1943 After todays sell off, Ill be adding to my Long Gold position in 0.25 to 0.50 basis points increments.

DanteBouzas

as of this afternoon: upside: 8.14% downside: 11.09% trend: Bullish

DanteBouzas

as of this morning upside: 9.81% downside: 10.09% a large move down tilting the expectancy ratio to the upside would present a buying opportunity.

DanteBouzas

Thesis: South Korea is being considered as an AI startup hub as well as a chip source for AI. it has a bullish trend. i am waiting for price to reach the lower end of the lower dynamic volatility range to start incrementally building a position in 0.25-0.5 basis points

DanteBouzas

With Implied Volatility @ 39.96% we can expect an 164 point move within the next 3 weeks. if your looking for buying opportunities your downside risk would be minimal at the lower end of the range and if your looking for selling opportunities your upside risk would be minkmal at the top end of the range.

DanteBouzas

I am watching BTCUSD now that it has formed a Double Top reversal pattern. The 2 dotted red lines represent support and resistance. The solid red line in the middle represents the muddy trench or value area. The yellow circle down at support is the area to watch for a confirmation of a breakdown. The Volume Profile tool shows that there is a lot of volume traded...

DanteBouzas

Volume is decreasing at the top of the range. A sign of a breakout in strong volume. Also, the volume is above average but is negative. Delta is negative and Cumulative Delta is decreasing. I believe the market is uncertain and it has to do with regulatory considerations and mining migration.

DanteBouzas

On 13JULY21 bids started appearing at 30k where the price eventually ended up. That liquidity was taken and now the price bounced to search for more orders. This looks like shorts partially covering positions at 30k and waiting to reload at 33k-35k.

DanteBouzas

I think now is a good opportunity to start scaling into a long term position for BTC This is my plan for a $20k investment if BTC goes to 10k

DanteBouzas

I like Solana. It is looking strong and there are some key factors that could make this a long opportunity. 1. Price dipped down to low 30s and tested support but it was rejected. If you compare SOL to BTC price is about to break all time highs. 2. Cumulative volume turned positive in the near term. Volume vs Average Volume is increasing as well. I am waiting for...

DanteBouzas

IS there a buying opportunity in XLM and other cryptos coming? Last night I got a buy alert signal from my Tradingview Strategy and when I woke up this morning most crypto was green. I took a look at the XLM daily and noticed that there is a higher probability the market will retest its previous highs if price closes outside on the green lines. We are looking for...