DatTong

DatTong

Macro: - Oil prices continued their decline following an agreement between the US and Russia to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, though without implementing a complete ceasefire. - The market turned bearish amid expectations that Russian sanctions may be eased, potentially increasing the oil supply surplus. - Uncertainty lingered as geopolitical tensions in...

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Macro: - Economic concerns in the US, including slowdown risks and trade policy uncertainties, have weakened the US dollar against the swiss franc, benefiting from its safe-haven status. - Traders expect 0.75% in Fed rate cuts this year, with a Jun cut fully priced. Investors now await Wed's US inflation report for further cues. - Meanwhile, net long dollar...

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Macro: - Oil prices stabilised after hitting multi-month lows as the market weighed potential output increases in Apr and escalating tariff tensions among Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU. - Meanwhile, the halted US military aid to the Eastern Europe conflict, and OPEC+ production decisions continue to pressure oil. Technical: - USOIL remains in a downtrend,...

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Macro: - Gold prices corrected as investors took profits following a brief consolidation near recent highs but maintained an upward bias amid uncertainty over Trump's tariffs and policy plans. - Meanwhile, strong ETF inflows and weak US economic data, reinforcing rate cut expectations for Jul, supported gold prices. - All focus is on this week's core PCE release...

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Macro: - The Dow remained in a prolonged sideways trend within a tightening range, navigating Fed policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and evolving trade policies. - Markets expect it to stay range-bound until the Trump administration finalizes tariff measures early next month. Technical: - US30 is trading in a tight range at the previous top level and...

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Macro: - The aussie-dollar is rebounding after the bearish sentiment over Trump’s tariffs has pressured the currency. - Expectations are rising that the RBA will cut interest rates this month due to easing inflation and weaker growth prospects. - This theme may impair currency recovery if there are any further corrections. Technical: - AUDUSD is recovering from...

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Macro: - The yen reached a multi-week high due to more hawkish expectations from the BoJ. Japan's December real Wage rose in the second month, driven by winter bonuses. - The Japan Service PMI was revised to 53. In addition, the BoJ signalled that it would be willing to raise interest rates when conditions met. Technical: - USDJPY dropped below both EMAs after...

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Macro: The pound weakened due to the absence of significant economic data as markets look for new catalysts. Today's movement is expected to align with dollar trends while traders focus on tomorrow's S&P Global PMI releases. UK and US Jan PMI figures are anticipated to show mixed results, with services slowing and manufacturing rebounding. Technical: - GBPUSD...

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+ Macro theme: The RBA kept rates at 4.35%, sounding more optimistic about inflation and hinting at future cuts. But Thu's job numbers might spoil those plans—Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9%, showing a surprisingly strong labor market. This hot jobs data could push back those early 2025 rate-cut forecasts many have been making. + Technical theme: - AUDUSD found...

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Macro theme: - The US sanctions on 35 entities tied to a top-exporter Middle East country supported oil prices. - OPEC+ reportedly considers a three-month delay in output hikes, easing fears of oversupply ahead of Thu's decision. - Meanwhile, according to API data, US crude inventories rose by 1.232 mln barrels last week, following a 5.935 mln-barrel drop the...

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Macro theme: - Markets are analyzing the latest FOMC minutes while awaiting key US data to clarify the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. - The minutes showed a cautious stance on rate cuts, favoring gradual adjustments. Markets currently see a 66% chance of a 0.25% cut in Dec, lending medium-term support to gold. - However, gold faces pressure from easing...

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Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation. - According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate...

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Macro theme: - Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to 0.6% in Oct—the lowest in over three years—raising expectations that the SNB may opt for a more significant 0.5% rate cut in Dec to keep inflation within its 0-2% target range. - Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% but issued a slightly more hawkish statement. Technical theme: - USDCHF...

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Macro theme: - The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short. - Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction. - With the US job report—the last before the...

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Macro theme: - The US30 has pulled back from record highs after a long rally, driven by rising Treasury yields and worries over high valuations. - Investors are watching earnings from companies like Boeing (BA) and Coca-Cola (KO), which could affect market sentiment. - With mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainties, short-term volatility is expected....

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Macro theme: - Bitcoin jumped over 5% yesterday, following a positive trend across the crypto market. This has fuelled investor optimism for further gains in the coming months. Improved market sentiment, global stock rallies, and limited negative news from Middle East tensions have supported the rise of bitcoin. - Additionally, open interest in Bitcoin futures...

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Macro theme: - The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead. - Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for...

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Macro theme: - The dollar strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more hawkish tone last week, scaling back traders' expectations of another 0.50% rate cut at the next meeting. - The safe-haven demand following the possibility of Middle East escalation boosted the dollar. - The US Aug JOLTS data showed 329,000 more jobs, indicating a more robust labor...