DatTong

DatTong

Macro theme: - WTI hovered around 72.50 dollars per barrel on Thu, attempting to recover from previous losses as markets considered potential supply risks due to rising tensions in the Middle East. - The Fed also implemented a larger-than-expected 0.5% cut, which could stimulate economic activity and boost oil demand. - However, worries over China’s slowing...

DatTong

Macro theme: - Fears of a global recession are weighing on Bitcoin as a risky asset, though the US economy remains on track for steady growth. - Investor engagement with exchanges has decreased, with lower trading volumes reflecting reduced interest. - Bitcoin's recent gains were impacted following the first debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with...

DatTong

Macro theme: - Oil prices have declined since last week as investors expect an OPEC+ supply increase in Oct and a potential deal in Libya to resume production, possibly adding over 500,000 barrels per day. - Weak economic data from China, including Tue's ISM Manufacturing PMI, highlighted the country's sluggish recovery, fuelling calls for more stimulus. -...

DatTong

Macro theme: - The dollar hovered near its lowest in over a year but downside momentum is fading as markets have already priced in Sep easing. - A short-term rebound is possible if the EU CPI continues its downward trend this week. Technical theme: - DXY formed a small double-bottom pattern around 100.50 in the 4-hour chart and bounced up to retest its neckline,...

DatTong

Macro theme: - At the Jul meeting, most policymakers suggested easing policy in Sep would be appropriate if the data aligned with expectations. - Bets on more rate cuts grew after US Nonfarm Payrolls were revised down to 820K, raising doubts about the labor market's resilience to higher rates. - Investors are now waiting for Fed Chair Powell's speech on Friday...

DatTong

Macro theme: - The BoJ's 0.25% rate hike last Wednesday, the highest in 15 years, sparked a global stock rout. The surge in the low-yielding yen, widely used for acquiring high-yielding assets like stocks, led investors to unwind their positions in currency carry trades. - Global equity markets rebounded after BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the...

DatTong

Macro theme: - On Wednesday, the BoJ announced an interest rate increase and a bond tapering plan, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy's recovery and concern over the weakened yen. - The BOJ raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 0.25%, marking the second rate rise this year after the Mar 19 increase, which ended negative interest rates,...

DatTong

Macro theme: The market is anticipating that the Fed will cut rates three times this year following the release of lower CPI numbers, which have fueled optimism that inflation is under control. Investors expect rate cuts in Sep, Nov, and Dec. This outlook is quite optimistic, given that the overall state of the US economy may not be dire enough to necessitate such...

DatTong

Macro theme: - The highlight of the past week was inflation data. US Jun headline CPI slowed to 3% YoY (vs. 3.1% expected, 3.3% previous), and core CPI was 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.4% expected and previous). - The core service component has been declining, and rental prices may continue to fall due to delayed contract renewals. With this inflation trend, markets expect...

DatTong

After the Non-farm payroll event last week, which saw 236,000 jobs added through March, it is clear that the job market is still creating many jobs compared to pre-COVID levels. However, the market has been experiencing some short-squeezing from yields to the dollar. The reason for this short-squeezing can be attributed to the mispricing between Fed fund futures,...

DatTong

The bank deposit outflow started since the Fed tightening cycle from March last year until now but got triggered more after the banking crisis a couple of weeks ago. Most of the deposit outflow ended up in the Money market fund assets, of which 80% are US T-bills, cash, or repos collateralized by government securities. This flee-to-safety trend triggered a buy in...

DatTong

Hi everyone, just share some thoughts regarding to the FOMC's meeting last week: - Fed's rate hike with 0.25% as expected after considering 1% before the pre-bank-crisis events and 0% for post-events. It's more logical for me than any other option, as inflation is still high, the labor market is still hot, and the economy is still boosted with hyped capital goods...

DatTong

- Nice boucing from D1 at the key structure level - Tested short EMA from an effort to reverse its previous downward structure. - It's clear path for positioning if you have not done yet - Still a lot of long-term holders from on-chain data

DatTong

Quick view: - Forming base and nice rejection - Bullish candle at support - OK RR Good luck as usual!

DatTong

Brief: - 1000 contracts bought at the 46000 levels to keep the Low - Price backed up from that point and went higher - Price trapped a lot of panic sellers - Good RR to trade

DatTong

Resoning: - Bear trap - OB - Confluence - High beta with BTC

DatTong Updated 

Hi all again, Briefs: - Market is running on sideways mode as my last comment on previous update - 47000 is a good point to hold (better than Elsalvador I guess). I observed in the last few days, many good buy around this level and ready for long-term - Price would make some back and forth at this level due to need to build up buyers and move when MM decides it's...

DatTong Updated 

FACTS: - Some good amount of rejections around current level - Nice Spring from BTC around 53k level - Accumulation phase at this level with higher Low I'm more bullish than another downward Leg and Accumulation phase around 52-53k. So the good case is BTC goes up after making a breakout above both the MA, then making some correction and look for Bid Wall to...