Dr_Roboto

Dr_Roboto

QQQ looks to have found some footing on the support line of the channel. It will be interesting to see if we get a counter rally up to test the 200 day SMA.

Dr_Roboto

I am guessing a bit more downside before we see a relief rally. The AI bubble is starting to unwind, and that falling knife is sharp. I am patiently waiting for some version of a short-term bottom. You can see in the chart that price is has several key support lines within near reach. I would expect testing and hopefully finding some support in the coming days. If...

Dr_Roboto

Seems to me that QQQ is starting to run out of steam. The strong AI rally seems like it may have reached peak FOMO and the Trump chaos is taking its toll. Trump's policies will likely be good for businesses and stocks in the long run if they don't put economy in a recession first. Any data showing that inflation is ramping back up will be bad. Typically markets...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

QQQ still bullish amid all of the chaos of Trump's first few weeks. Friday saw a high that was just a touch shy of a new ATH. Next week will give us a good idea what the future is, if we pull back we may be seeing a double top if you are bearish or we could make a new ATH and power on higher with bulls in control.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

A gap up and attempt to breakout of downtrend today. However, regular hours trading was pretty flat. You can see the high and low wicks on the candle testing support and resistance, but ultimately, price went nowhere after the gap up. Tomorrow should give us a good idea on which way it is going.

Dr_Roboto

I used to be a big advocate for Fib levels, but I feel like the lead me astray more times than helped, but none the less here is a high-level look with my estimate of fib levels. If I did it correctly, QQQ just touched off the 2.0 level. This could explain the weakness we saw this holiday season instead of the normal "Santa Claus Rally". Will we get a sizeable...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

QQQ testing the long term channel for support after breakout. Holiday are low volume and a usually a time for the market to climb some without any selling pressure. If I had to guess, then I would say we generally move sideway and up through the end of December. When the traders are back in full for in January will tell us if this rally continues or it has been a...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

As you can see, the bullishness continues and QQQ is back above the long term trading channel.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Finally, some action after a very boring month or so of being range bound. The lack of a contested election provided a major boost to tech the last two days :) Now, the question is if this rally is a true breakout above the trading channel that has confined QQQ for most of the last 14 years or so (minus the COVID bubble) or if it is just a fake out.

Dr_Roboto

QQQ hovering around the resistance of the core channel from 2010. Found support on the center of the black channel that is based on the COVID bubble. Price seems to generally range bound in this area between trendlines. Looks like more sideways without something big to push it one way or the other. Overall, it seems like tech has run out of FOMO. That does not...

Dr_Roboto

QQQ lost the 20 day SMA yesterday. History shows that there is a very strong probability that it will go lower. Today say it hold at the support of the AI-based rally over the last year or so. It broke through that the other week, but then we say the strong rally. I noted back then that it felt like a dead cat bounce counter rally to me. Looks like it is proving...

Dr_Roboto

Extremely bullish 2 weeks after that crazy low last Monday morning. You can see that QQQ tagged resistance yesterday and sold off today. Market is feeling bullish, but my gut tells me that this is a dead cat bounce. Hard to know for sure. The rally has been almost abnormally strong, and if you look back to early 2022 you saw the same thing. Big sell off with...

Dr_Roboto

Here is what I have been tracking with my technical analysis. What we saw since the end of July is the AI bubble losing its momentum. What happened? You can see on June 24th where price gaps up above the long-standing blue trading channel from 2009 that contained trading from 2009 until the 2020 bubble. You can see it gap down back into the blue channel on...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

After spending about a month above the long term blue channel since 2009 (excludes COVID bubble), QQQ is back inside the blue channel. You can see the gap up on June 12th and gap back down on July 24th. The black channel goes all the back to 2008 and the bottom of the market and includes the COVID bubble. The black mid-channel is currently acting as support. The...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Right now, not much seems to be stopping the bubble in Tech. You can see we broke above resistance on June 11th and have not looked back. I was expecting some form of test of support, like back in July 2020, but instead any pullback has been bought up. Volume is low and that means that everyone is long to go along for the ride. If we get a run up like back in...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

The gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

The blue trading channel has been a very reliable resistance since 2010. You can see the many times that it has confined price action, only being broken during the COVID bubble. My guess is that it will continue to be resistance. We will likely see a repeat of the action from 2015 and 2018 where price will slowly work sideways but ever so slightly higher with...