ElliottwaveSpecialist

ElliottwaveSpecialist

The dollar has found good support since yesterday afternoon when some US data prompted a USD/risk-off rally. The Leading Index printed a positive month-on-month number for the first time in two years, likely thanks to the strong equity performance and a weather-related rebound in the average work week. Existing home sales also surprised on the upside, rising from...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Eurozone PMIs continued to paint a grim picture for the region’s manufacturing outlook. In Germany, Manufacturing PMIs continued to grind lower despite expectations of a rebound. It now appears clear that the mild optimism around the turn of the year was likely misplaced. That is not hugely relevant for the FX market, anyway. The soft economic outlook in the...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Finally, we have had a couple of February regional manufacturing indices – from the New York and Philadelphia Fed regions. Both bounced back after recent weakness, but the implication nationally is probably minimal. This is a volatile series and had painted a much bleaker picture than the national ISM index reported in January – it rose to a 15M high. But that...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

In terms of the path for consumer spending, we are a little nervous that pandemic-era accrued savings will provide less support this year as they are increasingly exhausted by households while consumer credit growth is slowing sharply as higher auto loan and credit card interest rates bite. This means the spending growth will have to be driven by incomes and if...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

January’s US retail sales report looks soft, falling 0.8% month-on-month versus the 0.2% drop expected while December's growth rate was revised down to +0.4% MoM from +0.6%. The 'control group', which excludes volatile items such as autos, food service, gasoline and building supplies, has a better correlation with broader consumer spending trends – remember retail...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

January retail sales and manufacturing output were quite a lot weaker than expected, but we are coming off strong levels after upside surprises in late 2023. The outlook remains one of a slowing growth story as high borrowing costs, tight credit conditions and reduced support from pandemic-era accrued savings create a more challenging environment

ElliottwaveSpecialist

USD-JPY was capped overnight after jawboning by Japanese authorities stoked intervention risks. Japan’s top currency chief Masato Kanda warned against the recent one-way move in USD-JPY and mentioned that authorities stand ready to take steps if needed. Additionally, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he’s watching FX market developments with an even...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

We stick to yesterday's view and look to trade short-term extremes before clear daily signals emerge.

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Yesterday's position update: Time to move the stop to entry and maintain the profit target level.

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Please note that: 1. The current idea is based on all kinds of short-term Technical Analysis. 2. To avoid interest conflict with our clients, no combination with long-term Technical Analysis, Elliottwave Analysis, Fundamental Analysis yet. 3. It's an important reference of our Trading Decision Making, but definitely not the all. 4. It will be invalid after...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Please note that: 1. The current idea is based on all kinds of short-term Technical Analysis. 2. To avoid interest conflict with our clients, no combination with long-term Technical Analysis, Elliottwave Analysis, Fundamental Analysis yet. 3. It's an important reference of our Trading Decision Making, but definitely not the all. 4. It will be invalid after...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Please note that: 1. The current idea is based on all kinds of short-term Technical Analysis. 2. To avoid interest conflict with our clients, no combination with long-term Technical Analysis, Elliottwave Analysis, Fundamental Analysis yet. 3. It's an important reference of our Trading Decision Making, but definitely not the all. 4. It will be invalid after...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

US January CPI figures have made uncomfortable reading for the Federal Reserve. A core inflation reading of 0.4% month-on-month and nearly 4% year-on-year is not a good look for a central bank preparing to cut rates. It is no surprise that the December 2024 Fed Funds futures contract sold off 24 ticks yesterday and the market has scaled back expectations for 2024...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Yesterday's US CPI data briefly pushed EUR/USD two year swap rate differentials back to the widest levels of 2023. Add in a sell-off in equities and it was understandable that EUR/USD came under pressure. This means that EUR/USD continues to unwind the late 2023 rally and a break under 1.0700/0710 opens up 1.0660 and possibly even 1.0610. However, with Fed easing...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

Please note that it's one of our strategic ideas, but need to well control the risk before the key risk event ( US CPI ). We'll also publish some intraday "Raw Ideas" based on short-term Technical Analysis only. We will explain the types of trading signals at the time of publication. We hope all traders succeed. The best of luck!

ElliottwaveSpecialist

The number of comments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials has intensified in the past few days, and so has a divergence in views expressed by different members. Fabio Panetta, the most dovish voice in the Governing Council, endorsed rate cut expectations, saying that the time for monetary easing is “fast approaching”. That unsurprisingly differs from the...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

The US dollar index has eased back modestly over the past week after trading at its 2024 highest. The repricing of rate expectations following the hot US payrolls figures has offered some continued support in the dips to the dollar: this week, the US CPI release (tomorrow) can be the new catalyst for larger positioning shifts in FX. Our economics team’s estimates...

ElliottwaveSpecialist

NZ inflation expectations data is usually the last piece of major data to come out before the RBNZ’s rate decision and MPS. It often helps set the final tone for the coming meeting. The RBNZ’s steep rate hikes and falls in headline and core inflation have led to lower inflation expectations with 2Y ahead corporate expectations, a key metric for the RBNZ, declining...