Glewis54

Glewis54 Updated 

It appears that Oil is in a wave 4 consolidation with wave 5 coming next. In commodities, the fifth wave is often the longest and most explosive. Short of moving into the futures markets, I'm curious as to what the best stock to play for a move to 100+ in oil. The chart below indicates that Chevron has best kept up with the price of oil with Exxon/Mobil...

Glewis54

The SLV monthly line chart shows what an excellent base being formed. Looks like a textbook corrective wave coming to completion. Had pegged 35 as my target for Jan 2021 LEAP calls. Still holding 20s and 25s. Have been building out 30-50 June 2022 spreads when I can get for 1.25 or so. Think that one has to continue to play the long game, especially in the...

Glewis54

Some mainline prognosticators ( who have been wrong for at least a decade now), claim that the megaphone pattern has hit its peak. Quite possibly. If we are going to go down, the next possible downturn can possibly follow this pattern. As such, April 160-150 put spreads at under $1 seem like a cheap bet with a decent payout.

Glewis54

One rule I have long "invested" by is to buy a stock when it is at or below its 40 month moving average. The 40 month is arbitrary, double the 20 month which is commonly used in Bollinger Band work. Nonetheless, the concept is that the long term average moves at glacial speed. Thus it will continue to rise over time until a definite trend change takes place...

Glewis54

Interest rates soar, what could be worse for gold? Taking a long term shot here. Bought 170-220 June 22 call spreads in the 7s. Price is at the 20 month moving average now. Well, that means nothing I guess. Prices could always go lower. But with such a long time horizon, the short term volatility represents a decent place to accumulate. Extending the trend...

Glewis54

Still 20 minutes to go but the 3 month test of the low is a FAIL. Next stop the .50 Fib around 1616. 152 on GLD

Glewis54

I've had on my calendar the possible three month test of the low and potential long term buy point. Looks like 1776 must hold into the close tomorrow. A battle appears to be brewing. Will probably go down to the wire tomorrow.

Glewis54

For those who have infinite patience (silver stacking develops this virtue), the oil sector appears to still be one of the best value plays around. Crude has nearly doubled from the 30s late last year to be pushing 60 as of late. While higher prices and carbon taxes will probably push gas prices to levels never seen before in the US, past experience showed that...

Glewis54

Gold has been retracing but several factors lend to a good place to establish a January 2022 LEAP call option position. First off, price has found previous support at the .328 Fibonacci retracement level and looks to be retesting on a monthly basis. Holding this support level would be extremely bullish in my work, on a long term level. Should price break below,...

Glewis54

We all knew that silver would get smacked down, at least in the paper markets and so it did. I had been tempted to buy some of the 2021 10 ounce Queen's Beasts coins last week but was expecting still weaker prices. I did nothing during the run up, neither selling or buying more. We might be hitting a good buy point here. I often look for the test of the...

Glewis54

Infrastructure stocks surged recently and are beginning to retrace a bit. While the Stochastic indicator appears to be breaking down, the trend is strong and the cyclical nature of the stock leads me to believe that this is something I want to hold in my portfolio. For cheap plays, I'm looking to add Jan 22 25-35 calls. At 1.60 to 1.80, given the trend line...

Glewis54

As the election euphoria wears off and well-bid stocks regress to trend lines, a pilot position at these levels can show a significant return from 28-38 should prices hold the current channel. The Jan 2022 LEAPS have wide spreads but some shooters, like 30-35 spread might be had dirt cheap. No telling how the overall market will fare over the next year. Still...

Glewis54

Precious metals sold off some but in light of Ms. Yellen moving in to Treasury, a continuation of her currency expansion is likely. To disregard physical precious metals as perhaps the only safe store of wealth seems to be folly. While the gold/silver ratio has fallen from nearly 120:1 down to the mid 70s, Silver is no longer the best value. The Platinum Silver...

Glewis54

This is looking like a minor ABC correction with another leg down to complete.

Glewis54

Getting some sell in the precious metals is good. Waiting for the stochastics indicator to bottom. Some technical support at the fibs and the lower channel. The weekly chart looks more negative as the stochastics indicator is starting to fall from overbought levels. I'll be adding as the daily stochastics base using 2022-2023 LEAPS. Should prices fall even...

Glewis54

First impression was an extension here on the weekly line chart. At worst, it's a fifth wave. In commodities though, the fifth wave is often the most explosive. My conservative target for 2021 is 35 but if BItcoin prices are any indication of what the failing dollar trade could look like (300%+ this year), Does seem like a very good time to be long. Happy New Year all!

Glewis54

With interest rates near zero, it's still easy to build a portfolio of buy-writes with killer gains for the year. Analysts are calling for 55-65 price range on Wheaton this year. Selling a $50 call against it for a cost of 37.50 clears 30% on the year if prices move to 50 or better. As part of my diversified portfolio, I added this play for 2021.

Glewis54

Silver has not taken out last week's high despite a spirited rally today. I lightened up some on SLV last week anticipating a three week test of the low. With quad-witching on Friday, could be lots of volatility even extending to metals. Dollar continues to be super weak. Could be wrong and SLV can continue to move higher but I play the patterns that I know...