Goose96

Goose96

The rand has been on a tear since the second week of April which as seen it pull the pair all the way down onto the psychological rate of 18.00, all the way from the previous all-time high of 19.92. The rand benefited from the global search for yield and at +10%, the 10-year SA government bonds still holds juicy carry trade returns for international investors....

Goose96

Since my previous idea on the ZAR the SA budget speech ended in shambles after a failed attempt to increase VAT for 15% to 17% and the latest SA CPI figure crept higher to 3.2% in January. In terms of international relations, the vibe between the US and SA has continued sour which also does not bode well for the ailing rand. The above-mentioned factors...

Goose96

Previous string of ideas has been invalidated following last week's price action. The US 10-year yield completely crashed through the support at 4.40% last week following a host of strong data prints from the US coupled with a wave of risk-off investor sentiment stoked by Trump’s tariff fears which had investors rushing to the safety of US treasuries. Could...

Goose96

The DXY dropped to fresh yearly lows at 106.13 since my previous idea which does not bode well for my string of ideas calling for the DXY to break above 110.16. The DXY however managed to climb back above the blue support range between 107.12 and 107.50 at the back end of last week off the back of a stronger than expected durable goods orders m-o-m print of 3.1%...

Goose96

The US10-year yield closed the week marginally higher at 4.48% after a busy week of events which saw the DXY stumble by 1.2% despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed chair Powell, which in my opinion was all dollar positive. US CPI for the month of January came in hotter than...

Goose96

It is make or break time for my ideas on the DXY after the DXY failed to hold levels above the 50-day MA at 108. The critical support between 107.2 and 107.5 is currently being tested after the DXY closed the week 1.2% weaker at 106.8 despite US CPI rising for the 4th consecutive month coupled with a rather hawkish yet upbeat testimony before congress from Fed...

Goose96

The rand posted gains for the second consecutive week last week off the back of broad based dollar weakness which allowed the local unit to hold the pair below the 50-day MA rate of 18.48. The dollar weakness came as a surprise last week given the higher than expected US CPI print of 3.3%, for the fourth consecutive month, coupled with Powell’s hawkish tone at his...

Goose96

Last week has been a rollercoaster for the ZAR after gaping up and touching a high of 19.00 in the early hours of Monday morning following the news of Trumps executive order. The rand however regained its footing as the news got digested which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day MA currently at 18.45. It seems as if an ABC corrective wave has taken...

Goose96

It has been a topsy turvy week for the dollar after the week opened with news of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from the US as well as a 10% import duty on Chinese goods. The DXY spiked to a high of 109.9 before closing the week marginally lower at 108.1. The weaker than expected US NFP print however and surprisingly provided support for the DXY. This week’s...

Goose96

Since my last idea on US10-year yields the Fed opted to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.50% and the latest NFP print came in at a lackluster 143 thousand in January, down from 307 thousand in December. These two events provide a contradicting impact for US longer term yields as the weaker labour market results is indicative that the Fed may have to...

Goose96

This idea is a follow up on my previous DXY idea attached below. I predicted the DXY to pullback at the start of the year and for the support level between 106.9 and 107.4 to hold its ground upon this pullback. The 50-day MA currently at 107.8 is now the main support level to hold and a failed break below this level will be an early indication of another 5-wave...

Goose96

Just a quick update on my previous idea linked below. The US 10-year yield has come off and completed a 4th wave lower onto the 50-day MA of 4.83%. If this support and the current upward channel holds its ground, I expect a 5th wave higher to rip yields toward the 5% level. A break below the blue support range between 4.45% and 4.5% will however invalidate the...

Goose96

The ABC corrective pattern that I predicted in my previous idea, USDZAR 1Q2025 outlook, has played out after what has been a turbulent month of January. The DXY started rolling over in mid-January which allowed the rand some room to pull the pair to a low of 18.30. The support of the 50-day MA, currently at 18.40, which coincides with the top of the 3rd wave in...

Goose96

The rand has been on the ropes since mid-December after it failed to pull the pair below the 50-day MA support. Since then the broad-based dollar strength has seen the rand give away all its post-election gains. Fundamentally there I only see two factors which are supportive for the rand as we head into 2025. The first is a strong SA trade surplus of R34.7...

Goose96

Back in December before the November non-farm payroll print, the US 10-year yield was sitting just below the 4.20% which coincided with the 50- and 200-day MAs. Since the stronger than expected payroll print of 227 thousand, yields have spiked aggressively to highs just above 4.7% earlier this week. (See the attached idea from December) It is difficult to gauge...

Goose96 Updated 

Risk-off sentiment doesn’t seem to last long in this current market despite all the geopolitical tensions, election volatility and inflation fears we witnessed this year. In spite of all the volatility and the odd carry trade squeeze the SPX is set to end the year up more than 25%, its second year on the trot of more than 20% gains. Never the less the US10 is on...

Goose96

The 5th leg higher over the December period played out as predicted in my previous idea (link below) and the index is currently testing the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 108.73. The RSI index is however hovering in the overbought zone which may be an indication of the start of a corrective wave lower to kick-off the 1Q2025. I expect the DXY to depreciate...

Goose96 Updated 

The rand rode a wave of both local and international positive factors through the year. The local election results along with the new GNU attracted buyers back to the SA bond market in the first half of the year while internationally, sustained risk-on sentiment from the Fed’s aggressive 50bps rate cut in September and a 30% Bull Run in gold prices allowed the...