GreenhillFin

GreenhillFin

Alright degenerates, here’s your clean macro breakdown. Pair with strongest directional bias right now: USD/JPY Bias: SHORT USD/JPY (Bearish USD / Bullish JPY) WHY? Because the U.S. just tripped over its own tariffs and dragged the dollar with it. 1. U.S. melting down: • Trump went full trade-war goblin: 10% base tariffs on everything, up to 100% on certain...

GreenhillFin

Factors Supporting the Bullish Bias 1. Monetary Policy Divergence (Strong): • The Bank of England (BoE) maintains a relatively hawkish stance with a 4.75% interest rate, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its ultra-dovish monetary policy. • The significant yield differential between GBP and JPY creates strong support for GBP/JPY, especially as global...

GreenhillFin

As of January 2, 2025, 12:52 PM, I maintain a bearish short-term bias for EUR/GBP. This outlook is based on a detailed analysis of fundamental, macroeconomic, and political factors driving divergence between the Eurozone and UK economies. Here’s why I believe EUR/GBP has more room to fall: Fundamental Analysis 1. Monetary Policy Divergence: • ECB (European...

GreenhillFin

The short-term outlook for NZD/CHF is leaning bearish, and here’s why. A mix of macroeconomic trends and policy decisions from both New Zealand and Switzerland suggests the NZD will continue to weaken against the CHF. Let’s dive into the details: Why I’m Bearish on NZD/CHF: 1. Central Bank Divergence: • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been...

GreenhillFin

The EUR/USD pair continues to present bearish opportunities, with a confluence of fundamental and technical factors pointing toward further downside. Here’s why I’m maintaining a bearish outlook as we close out 2024. Fundamental Overview: 1. Eurozone Challenges: • The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 12, the fourth...