GrizzlyBearBee

GrizzlyBearBee

The market is currently pricing 7 rate hikes ending in the Q2-Q4 2023 range. To quote Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA: "Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. Higher prices for petrol and other commodities will...

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The Yen is no longer as a safe haven with the BoJ indicating that they are not bothered with a weak Yen. I expect further weakness, anticipating that the ZARJPY, AUDJPY & NZDJPY being great plays for this weakness The 0.618 Fibonacci extension lies ahead with the price target for 2022 being at the 100% level at 9.519.

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Oil is back at a very strong trendline dating back to Q4 2021. Brent Oil has seen flows in and out by speculators as they assess the damages caused by the russian invasion. This weekend, social media was filled with horrific videos and photos of the damages and a trail of murder of unarmed civilians in Bucha, Ukraine by russian troops and this could push...

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Yesterdays' release of the US' FOMC meeting minutes came as expected with a few curve balls. I noted that a few FED members favor balance sheet runoffs as in lieu of raising rates However a faster taper and three interest rate hikes are still expected in 2022 and this adds more support to stronger DXY. However, the US Dollar is expected to remain under pressure...

GrizzlyBearBee Updated 

The currency is gaining strength after hitting a lower level of the pitchfork. A head & shoulder pattern is forming and breakout could confirm the move higher

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Sitting above the 50 day Moving average, the pair has recovered yesterdays' loses. Yield Spread Fundamentally speaking, the Australian -Japan Government bond yield spread is gaining momentum as the RBA is expected to tighten monetary conditions while the JCB has held ground on keeping conditions as lose as possible. This is perhaps on of the best trades for Q1

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With a stronger US Dollar, I expect the Cable to fall. Sell on Breakout

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After the index found support at the previous ATH in late December, it has created a newer All time high. this opens up for more gains. Buy the dip moves to Europe with loser ECB monetary policy

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AUD weakness across the board and this air is primed to move lower. The price is currently rejecting the 50 day moving average after ranging for the entirety of 2021. I expect the pair to try go for the lower range

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Euro vs Norwegian Krona, which is stronger?? The former which has gained headwinds from a weaker US dollar as a result of Omicron spread threatening global recovery, or the latter which is an oil linked currency which will gain strength from global reopening? My Bet, the latter. My first TP from the December highs has been hit. A break below the 50 Day moving...

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For the past few months, the Swiss Franc has moved within a range. Recently, the currency broke below the 50-week moving average hence opening up lower price targets. As a result, I expect CHF pairs to drift lower. Since there's no real strength, it's best to take advantage of weaker currencies compared to the CHF. The NZDCHF cross has remained under pressure...

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Many cryptocurrencies have lost more than half of their value from all time highs this year. From Polkadot to Uniswap to Dogecoin. Carano is not special. I've been studying historical crypto patterns and they all have one thing in common, once the bubble pops, most of them tend to lose more than 90% of their price. Carano is a fairly new project compared to...

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Ethereum's bull run this year was no easy feat. Widespread adoption of the underlying crypto technology into building DAOs and of course, the NFT market has propelled the currency to all time highs. However, technical charting shows underlying market weakness. Ethereum is sitting on a strong level of support including the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level of the...

GrizzlyBearBee Updated 

The November inflation numbers came in hotter as expected. CPI inflation : +0.8% m/m vs. +0.7% est. & +0.9% in prior month; y/y at +6.8% vs. +6.8% est. & +6.2% in prior year … Core CPI : +4.9% y/y vs. +4.9% est. & +4.6% in prior year This shows that inflation grew at fastest rate since the 1980s. For bond traders, the initial reaction led to lower...

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We stand at a crossroad. First, market conditions mirror the global economy in 2018. Back then, the FED was getting to raising rates when the Eurodollar curve inverted. Flattening US bond rates too indicated that economic growth in 2019-2020 would would slow. Now, the FED is expected to be aggressive on asset purchases taper in next week's meeting. Three rate...

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New concerning mutation of Covid19 virus from South Africa spooks markets as currencies linked to central banks that tightened monetary policies are weak. The mutation is rumored to compromise immune systems despite of vaccination status. With the increased volatility, I expect the oil-linked Loonie, to be weak.. Buy on Euro strength and as other Major...

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For months, the pair has struggled to close above the 50 Month Moving Average. It may be getting a successful rejection of an area full of support including the 200 Day Moving Average and the 0.382 fibonacci level. Patience is key as the Swiss Franc has been strong recently with weakness showing up in the past 2 weeks - partly because speculators are betting...

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Gold had the largest reaction to a US CPI release in a long time. The price reached a temporary high of $1860s before calming down. It's important to note that GOLD has had several head fakes in the past two years and this move could reverse. Technically, it's the smart thing to wait for a retest of the $1835 level before buying... Fundamentally, inflation is...