Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World

Good morning, folks, and happy Friday! Welcome to Opex; let's get right into our analysis. It was another shakey overnight session with Asian stocks leading global futures lower after China said it would pass a strict privacy law by Nov 1st, directly affecting tech and ecommerce companies and their collection and use of certain types of data from their customers....

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Our focus on the dollar today is based on the fact that for over a year the DXY has been forming a double bottom reversal pattern. Now that we're back near the recent high's, we're seeing the stars align for a major market correction, not necessarily off the back of a DXY breakout, but perhaps because of a major risk off move across the asset classes. I mean, the...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Good morning, folks! Well, well, well, the Fed decides to taper this year, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose in global markets. If you're thinking this entire "recovery" was just one big magic trick of coordinated monetary debasement, you're absolutely right, and the market's reaction to the Fed minutes yesterday (and today) is a perfect demonstration of...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Good morning, folks! It was a relatively quiet overnight session with futures drifting sideways and trading essentially flat as we approach the open. As of 8:45AM the Dow is down -0.20% to 35,187, the S&P is down -0.11% to 4,438.75, the Russell is up 0.11% to 2,176.90, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,989.75. Traders will be keeping a close eye on today's Fed...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Vix continues to trend higher. We're sitting at a 17 handle and based on the stochastic we may be about to take another leg higher after the recent pull back from 25. I can't believe risk protection is so cheap right now, it's insane. Yet most market participants don't think they need it. One thing I know for certain is large traders have been accumulating risk...

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Canopy Growth (WEED) is getting absolutely hammered. We're down over 7% this month after crashing over 20% in July. Imo, the stock is going to blow up when the US finally decriminalizes Cannabis. The opportunities for hemp are endless and of course the recreational market for drinks, bud, and all the rest is booming in legal markets. If I see a sub 20's print,...

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The Dollar (DXY) is on a tear today. We're up over .50% on the day and we look poised to retest the wedge as resistance once again. Will we see a breakout here, finally? That would only mean one thing, folks, risk sells off heavily. Let's see how the week shapes up with the Fed minutes tomorrow potentially revealing a taper schedule to begin as early as October...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Happy Friday, folks! Another week has come and gone, and US Futures (sans the Russell) are glued to the ATH's. Will the nightmare ever end? We drifted higher all day yesterday, only to see yet another short squeeze into the close. The equity inflows are absolutely relentless, and with today's NFP report blowing away expectations (943k vs the 925k expected), and...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Good morning, folks! As of 8:45AM on Wednesday morning, US Futures are seeing some light weakness with the Dow down -0.33% to 35,003, the S%P down -0.27% to 4,411, the Nasdaq down -0.10% to 15,046, the the Russell down -0.82% to 2,202.80. The ADP Employment Change came in moments ago at 330k vs the 650k expected, and the weak print has erased some of the overnight...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Good morning, folks! For those of you in Canada, I hope everyone had a great holiday to start the week. Let's get right into today's analysis. After rolling sell programs yesterday to kick-off the month of August, US Futures are drifting higher on Tuesday with the Dow up 0.25% to 34,808, the S&P up 0.22% to 4,389.50, the Russell up 0.46% to 2,221.10, and the...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Time to revisit our SPY/Vix chart (log scale). As you can see we're still at the top of the range, and looking poised for a market correction any week now. The stochastic RSI is showing weakness, with both the RSI and MACD rolling over on the weekly and monthly time frames. Looks like we could be in for a rough couple of months ahead, folks. Trade accordingly...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Happy Friday, folks! Welcome to the final trading day of July. What a month it's been, but the real shock here imo is the fact that the S&P has essentially (as of now) tagged 6 straight months of gains. DJ Powell must be exhausted standing at the booth, spinning every story of economic hardship into a love song for his retail permabull ravers. Amazon's earnings...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Since the merger between the Fed and the Treasury (kidding, kind of), I've had so many conversations with individuals outside of the financial industry who struggle to fully grasp how central banks are stealing their money. Today, I'm going to share a short and simple post which I hope will help explain the direct effect of "money printing," on the working class....

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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) daily RSI is overbought (we appear to be rolling over), and we're at 21EMA (w) resistance, as well as retesting the previous high. The bulls may struggle to breach this resistance level, setting us up for a leg lower toward 30k support as early as next week. Hold on to your hats as the stars align for a risk-off sh*tstorm in August across the...

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Looks like the bond market knows something stocks don't (again). Same divergence here that we saw running up to the March 2020 crash. We're looking at SPY/M2 compared to the US10Y yield (in white). The last time the 10Y yield was in free fall, stocks continued to climb, ignoring the signal, only to crash a couple months after the divernegce began. Let's see what...

Hedge_Of_The_World

After another run around yesterday on taper talks by Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, global markets are screaming higher, and headed back for their ATH's. As of 8:30AM, the Dow was up 0.34% to 35,051.80, the S&P500 is up 0.18% to 4,408.40, the Russell was up 0.66% to 2,240.10, and the Nasdaq was flat at 15,018.10. China convened a meeting with top banking officials...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Global Futures are trading broadly in the red on Tuesday after drifting sideways for most of Monday. Having said that, we're still at ATH's, and looking like a freight train without breaks. As of 9:00AM the Dow was down -0.25% to 35,055, the S&P was down -0.14% to 4,416, the Russell was down -0.66% to 2,202, and the Nasdaq was up 0.06% to 15,134. Despite the...

Hedge_Of_The_World

SPY monthly RSI is 76.75. Remember the RSI pattern we discussed recently? Look at the RSI from Jan 2019 to Feb 2020, and then look at the RSI from Feb 2020 to Jul 2021. That's an almost identical impulse wave. What comes next, if history is any indication, is a massive, unexpected, market crash. We'll have to wait and see how the wave plays out...