Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Socialist US President, Donald Trump, is begging congress to hand out $2,000 to every man, woman, and child in the country. This is an extraordinary thing to witness from a so-called Republican President, who, by core party value, should be both socially, and fiscally conservative. The question I keep asking myself is this: If $2,000 is going to be better than...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

According to James Knightley, Chief Economist at ING, "The agreed fiscal relief package will undoubtedly help mitigate some of the negatives but unfortunately, it won’t be able to fully offset the effects of people staying at home as many businesses face tighter restrictions or are even forced to close." Obviously $900B, 4% (2 weeks) of GDP, can't offset the...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

If 25 breaks it's all over.

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Hey guys, so as we discussed on Friday, the short-term bearish harmonic has now broken, and we're seeing some aggressive selling this morning off the back of the new stimulus deal, mutated covid-19 strains in the UK, and mass global lockdowns. For the few bears left standing, the megaphone is now back in play at 359. Today's supports are 363.30, 362, then finally,...

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Money Supply up 60%, and stocks up 60%. Coincidence? #FED

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

A gap down on Quad-Witch? The FED must be panicking. After hitting all-time high's yesterday (once again), SPY is seeing some heavy selling pressure here in the first 30 minutes of Quad-Witch, along with the rest of the US majors, which are down about .3%. The intraday bearish harmonic appears to have broken, and we're now back to a 369 handle, just north of the...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

The third Friday of March, June, September, and December, is Quad-Witch day. This is when stock index options, stock index futures, individual stock options, and single-stock options, all expire on the same day. On Quad-Witch day, we tend to see a spike in volatility off the back of a roughly 40% increase in volume (on average). We will see roughly 45% of all...

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Apple refuses to provide forward guidance off the back of weak iPhone sales, and, of course, all the uncertainty stemming from COVID-19. Yet, they order more iPhones, along with running a convincing PR campaign, to promote that fact, and pump the stock, of which, they are one of the largest buyers. Over the next 12 months, revenue is obviously going to disappoint...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Possible bearish harmonic XABCD pattern showing potential upside to 373 in the interm. 373 is the top of the recent ascending channel formed from the Nov 9th high, and Nov 10th low (in white). The top of the channel also happens to converge with the longer-term ascending trendline from the April lows (in green). Let's see if we finally get that monthly (outside...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

In a recent report by Bespoke Investment Group, it was revealed that one of the most profitable trades on Wall Street, since 1993, was to simply buy the S&P close, and sell the open. If you did just that alone, you would have seen a whopping 800% return to date, vs. doing the opposite, which resulted in a shocking 10% loss over the same period. According to Zero...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

As Sven Henrich says, Vix 46!

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Would you rather get $1,000 in cash for Christmas, or $1,000 in QQQ?

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

It's Vaccine Day, Yay! Maybe now, Mr. Market, we can see a sell-the-news event? Don't hold your breath, folks. After a strong gap up overnight, the US Majors are being panic-bid here at the open. Vix is crashing down to a 22 handle, erasing all of yesterday's gains. The Put/Call ratio shows the incredible shift in sentiment over the weekend, going from a 50 handle...

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50 period MA on the weekly is being heavily tested, and we've been in a beastly uptrend since August. If you look at the longer-term behaviour of rates, you see a beautifullly defined channel, with consistent breakouts above the 50 period MA. Time for a bond market correction, and a reassessment (and repricing) of the risk-free rate. Cheers!

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Boy do I wish that were true. Instead I'm waking up to a freezing cold winter in the North Pole (Canada), and a world on lockdown. It is Friday, though, so I'm in a particularly good mood, and if I must say, watching global markets in the red (for a change), just puts a smile on my face. Yesterday we discussed the potential for further downside, off the back of...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

After trading essentially sideways overnight, futures are seeing some pressure this morning on a weak Jobless Claims print. Initial Claims came in at 853k vs 720k exp. (the largest weekly rise since March), with Continuing Claims rising for the first time since the crash, to 5.76MM vs a prior print of 5.53MM. CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.2% vs 0.1% exp....

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Hey guys, I hope everyone's having a great week! Let's get right into it today. So the majors saw new all-time high's overnight (again), but appear to be experiencing some weakness as we approach the afternoon session. At the moment, SPY is trading comfortably above the megpahone pattern (and longterm resistance trendline) on the monthly, for the first time in...

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Today I'd like to touch on a systemic threat to the bullish thesis on Bitcoin, and Crypto in general, which I don't see discussed very often, which is Quantum Computing (QC). Now, one of the most popular demonstrations of the power of QC, has been it's application of processing power to crack lengthy mathematical codes. Many companies, and governments across the...