Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World

US Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning, and are sitting near ATH's to start the week. The Dow is down -0.7% to 34,308, the S&P up 0.9% to 4,276, the Nasdaq up 0.32% to 14,384, and the Russell down -0.11% to 2,329.50 as of 9AM. It's insane to me to watch quantitative hedge funds underperforming retail traders, while asset valuations becomes more and...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Vix (log scale) is extending losses after the existing home sales print this morning - we're now down over 16% on the week after last week's spike to 21, and approaching the long term support trendline (in red). Let's see if markets finally roll over, and Vix becomes the most crowded trade on the street again.

Hedge_Of_The_World

Patience...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

US Futures are treading water after yesterday's aggressive buying spree saw us recapture lost 50DMA supports across the majors. The S&P is down -0.04% to 4,212, the Dow is down -0.6% to 33,741, the Russell is down -0.31% to 2,274, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,124 as of 9:00AM. Bitcoin is crashing and is down around -5% on the day, and down over -15% on the...

Hedge_Of_The_World

US Markets are experiencing a technical bounce on Monday after last weeks Bullard spook/Fed hawkishness on Wednesday. EURUSD looks poised to test the 50DMA as early as today, but according to polarity principle, we should see a rejection if we do, and a continuation of the recent downtrend (toward the 200DMA around 1.157). At the same time, I expect the 50DMA on...

Hedge_Of_The_World

The Dollar (DXY) is coming off extreme overbought levels on the daily timeframe. We're seeing a rejection at the wedge resistance on Monday, and we're likely to extend losses before a potential retest as early as this week. Let's see how the White House PPT meeting goes, and how the narratives in the MSM evolve following the meeting. We could be about to see a...

Hedge_Of_The_World

After a rocket-like rally on Monday morning, we're now drifting at the top of the afternoon session, and trading just below the green ascending trendline, but SPY hourly RSI is showing weakness in the rally. No sign of the bears as yet, but I suspect they will want to recapture that 50DMA before the close to keep the downtrend intact. Let's see what happens next...

Hedge_Of_The_World

US Futures are rebounding modestly on Monday morning after last weeks sell off - the S&P is rallying around 0.50% to test the 50DMA around 4,176.58 (likely as resistance), the Dow is seeing support at the 100DMA at 33,011 and is up around 0.71% on the day, the Russell is retesting the 50DMA around 2,250, and the Nasdaq is floating somewhere in orbit around 14,072...

Hedge_Of_The_World

Based on the US equity options Put/Call, most traders are on the wrong side of the boat heading into tomorrow's (quad-witch) opex. Hold on to your hats, folks!

Hedge_Of_The_World

According to Spot Gamma, below 4,200 on the S&P is risk off. Let's see if the bulls can recover and get us back above this critical level, or if the bears hammer us lower and take advantage of the BTFD volume. We're sitting just above trendline support (in green), and MA supports just below (21EMA and 50DMA). If we see any real risk off moves today or tomorrow on...

Hedge_Of_The_World

US Futures are hovering near yesterday's lows after a shaky start to the overnight session saw us reverse the Powell driven buying spree that started around 2:45PM when he said to take the dot plot with a "pinch of salt." Powell is now essentially saying that the Fed doesn't know what it's doing, so don't really listen to what the members think. I mean, this guy...

Hedge_Of_The_World

The Vix recently caught a bounce off one of the lowest weekly RSI prints since 2013. We've seen support each time the Vix hit a weekly RSI of 41, and so Vix may finally be on the verge of a notable spike soon, which leads me to believe that the Fed may surprise markets today by being more hawkish than expected, or opex (quad-witch) on Friday may be a disaster for...

Hedge_Of_The_World

ABNB lost some steam yesterday after testing a 153 handle. We saw some light inflows today at the open, which have now been erased, but we look poised to test the 50DMA sitting around 156.36. We also have room to run toward the upper band of the triangle around 160 if the 50DMA is captured, where we should see strong resistance and possibly a continuation of the...

Hedge_Of_The_World

FB is channeling up nicely and showing potential upside to 360 where the upper band of the channel is sitting as of today, which would imply a new ATH, of course. We have downside to around 300 where we should see notable support. If we lose 300, we still have channel support currently sitting around 285. This is a pretty persistent trend, so I don't expect much...

Hedge_Of_The_World

AMZN is approaching the upper band of it's 11 month range. I don't expect a breakout to new ATH's, but certainly we may see a retest of the ATH around 3,550 as early as this week (unless the Fed disappoints markets this afternoon by hiking the IOER or RRP/even mentioning tapering bond purchases), followed by a potential retest of the lower band around 2,950.

Hedge_Of_The_World

AAPL is in the process of breaking through it's MA resistances after seeing support at the lower band of the wedge. We have potential upside to around 138 at the upper band, and trendline support just below the MA's around 126. The RSI is sitting around 60 at the moment, so we still have room to run on the daily time frame implying a higher probability of further...

Hedge_Of_The_World

We're looking at SPY on the hourly time frame, and we appear to be in an island top reversal. Let's see how the close shapes up and if the bears have been saving all the fire power for today...

Hedge_Of_The_World

We're at a major resistence level here on the S&P when M2 is taken in to consideration, going back to 2002. We're looking at S&P Futures divided by M2, and as you can see, this looks like the end of the road, folks. One thing is certain, whatever happens next for markets is going to be epic...