Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World

US Futures are doing what they always do these days, which is melt up overnight to new ATH's, while we all sleep. Buy the close, sell the open is still alive and well. The S&P500 hit a new ATH moments ago, at 4,207.62, before cooling slightly, which implies a breakout above the ascending channel we've been stuck in since November. I'll repeat that - the bulls just...

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US Futures continue to drift sideways in what is shaping up to be another mind numbing day of price action. The S&P literally hasn't moved more than a couple points since last Friday. European and Asian markets were broadly higher, and the Vix slid back to a 16 handle. It's so frustrating watching the same meaningless price action day after day. But, both Biden,...

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After a strong 7Y YST auction, the US10Y yield just broke out above the 21 day EMA. We're back at 1.615%, and poised to blow up as the week progresses. This recent buying frenzy in bonds may be exhausted, and yields could be poised for a solid spike higher (potentially on Powell remarks about future monetary policy tightening tomorrow). Fed QE bond purchases are...

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UVXY is testing critical support as we speak. We're approaching oversold levels on the hourly time frame, and coming off oversold levels on the daily. The US Majors are overbought across the longer time frames, and sitting at their ATH's. Hmm. Double up, or triple up?

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There's a possible trade here on GME. We're at critical resistance, and seeing an initial rejection. The daily RSI, as well as the MACD are looking bullish. We may see a breakout above the triangle, leading to another epic short squeeze near the ATH. Having said that, this would be a good time to trade extremely tight stops, as the broader market is potentially on...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

The RSI has gone from 96 to 57 on the daily timeframe in just one week, and we're looking at a sharp bounce off the 21 day EMA (as expected) . Buy the dippers are going to be lining up to grab the (perceived) discount, so imo there's a tradable bounce here back near ATHs. Let's see how next week shapes up, and if potential weakness in equity markets (and bond...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

DOGE RSI at 96 on the daily timeframe. We're looking at a log scale which is showing potential exhaustion of the rally. Trade with caution...

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The US10Y yield has seen persistent support at the 50DMA since August 2020. Let's see if the 21 day EMA converges with the 50 potentially reversing the recent rise in yields, or if we see a strong bounce off the 50DMA, and continue toward the 2% level, putting pressure on growth oriented equities.

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If XRP breaks out above the descending channel, we may see a retest of the recent high around 1.84. Having said that, the intrinsic value of some of these instruments are almost irrelevant. All we know is the sentiment around the price, and at the moment it's bullish. We've fallen quite drastically to major support (21 day EMA), and are now poised to see a...

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UVXY looks poised to double in the immediate term to a 10 handle. Let's see if we get a Vix breakout (above 19.70) by the close of trade today. We'll need to see it hold for the previous resistance level (18.80) to act as support going forward...

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Increased demand from perpetual fiat debasement and free money, constricted supply from cargo ships blocking supply routes, Covid lockdowns. This is a recipe for disaster. Inflation is coming folks!

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The 1.618 Fib (415) is holding up as resistance for now. SPY is sitting at a 414 handle, and is notably below the upper band of the ascending channel, as well as the 21EMA (h). We've caught light support at the 50MA (h) on the open, but as of this moment, it's not looking good for the bulls. If sentiment remains shaky, the house of cards may finally come crashing down...

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The Dollar (DXY) is seeing support at the lower band of the wedge, and if it holds, we could be looking at potential upside to the 95 level, where our monthly target is sitting. If we lose this support, the dollar has downside to the previous low from February around 90.

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Vix is seeing consecutive rejections at the 21 day EMA, which is sitting just below a previous support level turned resistance. If we see a breakout above this level today, we have initial upside to the 50DMA around 20.9.

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

What is the put/call ratio? The put/call ratio (PCE) is a popular barometer of market sentiment, which shows the ratio of trading volumes of Put vs Call options. However, with distortions in the current price of nearly every instrument off the back of "free money," and persistent market intervention by policy makers, we're not quite seeing the price discovery...

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Every full-time trader knows that rule number 1 in this business isn't to make money; rule number 1 is: don't lose money. Hence, any successful, long term trading strategy must inherently focus on managing risk. I know that lately the word risk carries next to no meaning, and that's because the more risk you take, the more you're rewarded, while those who manage...

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Let's take a look at the Vix with a Heikin Ashi candlestick, and on a log scale. Notice the RSI on the monthly timeframe is 43, after hitting a similar RSI high in March 2020 (80) to that of Nov 2008, when the RSI was around 80 as well. The post November crash RSI low in the Great Recession crash was around 40, and we're at 43 now on the bounce. In 2010, abruptly...

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QQQ divided by M2 (QQQ/M2) shows us at critical, multi-year resistance. This could be the end of the line, folks...