Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World

We're now at 13 month high's. According to Goldman, the market is pricing in 3 rate hikes by the end of 2023. At the January FOMC meeting, just a couple months ago, only 1 rate hike was expected. This is what we've been waiting for, and what we've been discussing for months now. Rates are rising, monetary conditions are tightening, and risk is fucked. When money...

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The Nasdaq is puking on Friday by as much as 2%, as yields spiked back toward the recent high's. The 10Y yield traded as high as 1.616% after pairing some gains, while the 30Y yield broke out to new high's at 2.38%. Are the CTA's jumping back into short already after this week's muted long end auctions? I was wondering what investors were thinking, piling back...

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Based on the seemingly neverending optimistic narratives in the MSM, you'd think the economy is a rocket ship, heading for the promise land, where every family in the US is going to be taken care of by the government, and Fed, who have no agenda other than to do everything in their power to help you. Your thinking about the stock market, and with jobless claims...

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US markets are treading water on Monday morning, ahead of the US cash open, but the Nasdaq is seeing some pressure amid another surge in the 10Y yield back toward the 1.61% level. The Biden Administration has successfully won the Senate vote on the $1.9T stimulus package, which should now see the bill go back to the house for final senate approved changes, and...

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I'd say we nailed it. But, wait for the real move, it hasn't happened yet.

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A surprisingly dovish Powell just disappointed his loyal followers, with a beat around the bush response to the seemingly out of control long end of the curve, and made zero mention of the upcoming SLR exemption. If banks don't get an extension on this, they're going to have to sell treasuries to cover the reserve requirement. 2% here we come!

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Global futures are mixed on Wednesday morning, while the US majors are extending losses, after an ugly session yesterday, which saw the Nasdaq (QQQ) lose the critical neckline, after losing the 50 day MA earlier on in the week. The SPY is poised to open at the 50 day MA around 380.70, which has acted as strong support as recently as Jan 29th. If we see a break...

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After a relatively weak day yesterday across global markets, US futures are seeing some light volatility this morning with the S&P hovering around 386.40, the Dow at 31,400, the Nasdaq at 13,000, and the Russell at 2,236. European markets caught a light bid, while Asian markets were up notably. After seeing one of the best performing days for global markets sine...

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He's back baby. If the upper green resistance line breaks, we're going back to 91.50...

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Vix back at a 30 handle and looking poised to revisit the recent high of 37. While CTA's potentially cover their shorts after the bond market convexity quake, retail seems to be taking profits, and remain spooked. Lot's of weakness across global markets today. Join us now as we discuss every move on the indexes with our live analysis.

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US Markets traded relatively flat in the overnight session, with European and Asian markets getting clobbered. The FTSE 100 was down 1.75%, with CAC 40 seeing a 1% sell-off. The Hang Seng was down by as much as 4%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 saw a 2.7% drop. I think it goes without saying that yields across the globe are rising, particularly on the long end of the...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Watch for a potential overnight correction in risk assets tonight or tomorrow off the back of a large spike in yields to 1.50%. Are we finally seeing the catalyst we've been waiting for? God I hope so... Follow the conversation live at www.hedgeoftheworld.com

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Well, well, well. The 10Y yield clipped 1.466% on Thursday morning, after spiking yesterday to 1.39%. As a reminder, according to Nomura, the 1.50% level is a CTA short trigger level, and could have a major negative impact on equity prices if breached. On top of that, we have several investment banks watching the 2% level, where, Morgan Stanley in particular, sees...

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US markets saw some light chop in the overnight session, with the Dow and S&P trading relatively flat from yesterday's close, and the Nasdaq, and Russell, trading down around 0.30%. The US 10Y yield continued it's rally toward the 100MA (w), with a print of 1.331% before cooling off toward the 1.31% level. The 2s10s spread is now the widest in almost 3 years. As...

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Beware of a potential correction at these overbought levels. We may go higher before we go lower, but with an RSI of 90 on the monthly timeframe, we may be overdue for a multi-week, if not, multi-month correction across the crypto space. Trade with caution...

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Back on Dec 1 when we initially discussed the possibility that the bond market was poised for a correction/crash, we didnt anticipate this as a stairs up move with the 10Y on the verge of breaking .90% and approaching the 1% mark. However, the rise since August has been persistent, and we're now approaching the 100MA (w) around 1.34%. When credit markets do break,...

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Global markets are simply unstoppable at the moment. According to Zero Hedge, the MSCI World index just saw it's longest winning streak in 17 years, having risen for the past 12 days in a row. Jerry must be dancing naked in front of the mirror every morning without fail. What a clown. The US majors were up around half a percent on Tuesday morning, with the scent...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Global markets continue to march higher, as every last short position in the world of trading is squeezed to death in seemingly coordinated fashion. While large HF's continue to frontrun retail orderflow, they'll continue to know exactly what retail traders are doing at every moment, and how to take full advantage on the way up, and on the way down with their...