Hedge_Of_The_World

Hedge_Of_The_World

Happy Friday, everyone! Global futures are taking a beating on Friday, as lockdowns in Hong Kong, Germany, UK, and across the euro area, tightened further. Traders have been on an absolutely ridiculous risk binge since November (really since March 2020), running straight towards a cliff, and are waking up today to realize they may be on the wrong side of risk. The...

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US Futures drifted higher in the overnight session, with the S&P hitting a fresh all-time high of 3,859.62. We saw continued weakness in the labour market this morning, with jobless claims coming in higher than expected (exp 845k) at 900k, and over 5MM continuing claims persist. Not that the labour market has anything to do with this super cool new MMT economy....

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

If I were a betting man, I'd say the 10Y yield looks poised to test 1.20% as early as this week. A weak 20Y auction which saw $24 Billion in demand at a significantly higher yield than December, could be indicating weakness in the bond market.

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It was another gap up overnight (shocking), and like most of you, I'm starting to wonder if markets will ever function normally again. Yesterday, we saw freakish price action in the afternoon session, as markets flat-lined from about 1PM onward. It's been a long time since I saw candlesticks look like a line chart in the open cash market. But, here we are again,...

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We're consistently making higher lows, and I suspect this time is no different. Maybe it's just me, but Vix looks incredibly cheap, considering the fact that half of America's GDP has just been replaced with a printer. We're going to run into the long-term descending (green dotted) trendline soon, and Vix will explode. The current policy path is not sustainable,...

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After Friday's volatile options expiry, global futures are surging (after a somewhat muted MLK day), erasing most of Friday's losses as investors found more risk appetite. This was off the back of a potential dovish speech from Biden's pick for Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to speak at 10AM this morning. Asian stocks were notably higher, while...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Global Futures traded lower on Friday morning, as Biden's "rescue" proposal disappointed investors, as it fell short of infinity at $1.9 Trillion. When that $1,400 is spent in a month, what next? Chair Powell mentioned yesterday that there was a possibility of rate hikes in the future and a tightening of monetary policy (room for a change in policy), but that it...

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Futures traded sideways again in the overnight session, and have been stuck in a tight range since last week Friday, when we saw a nasty payrolls print. This morning's jobless claims came in ugly with 965K new claims, the highest level since August, and 5.271MM continuing claims, a rare rise from last weeks 5.072MM. Import and Export prices came in higher than...

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The risk free rate took a breather yesterday, and then again today, as (yesterday) the 10Y auction was a smash success, followed by a near record 30Y auction today. We saw $38 Billion in demand in the 10Y auction, driving yields lower, toward the 1.11% level. Then after the 30Y auction today, the 10Y yield was hammered back to 1.08%. Members of the FED made their...

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It's impeachment day 2.0! US futures continue to drift sideways as Vix and the dollar hold on to a 23, and 90 handle respectively. CPI came in at 0.4%, with Core CPI rising 0.1%. Investors will be on the look out for the FED's Beige Book at 2PM, which should give an indication on future monetary policy, and may even firm up some rumours of future rate hikes off...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

US futures traded sideways in the overnight session, as investors took in the view, and breathed in the thin air from the top of Mount Everest. We saw a light sell off yesterday, which was relentlessly bought into, and the moral of the story was this: bulls were able to successfully defend the 21EMA on the hourly at the open, throughout the day, and again at the...

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I've been hearing from many of my colleagues, most of whom are experienced traders, that rates are not going to rise anytime soon. 2023, 2024, 2025, all common projections for when rates will rise. Yet, we've observed the 10Y yield rising a whopping 120% since the beginning of August, to 1.13% today. Morgan Stanley said in a recent report, which I've mentioned in...

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Risk protection is looking incredibly cheap right now. We're making higher lows, though, and looking ripe for another spike. Let's see how the week progresses, but I suspect once we cross the upper green dotted line, we're going to see a notable correction on the Majors, and Vix back in the mid 30's. If we see continued downward pressure on markets as February...

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Hey guys, sorry I miss you on Friday, I was working on my website. Let’s get right into today’s analysis. Global futures drifted about 1% lower in the overnight session, after the US majors saw new all-time highs (again) on Friday. The Vix is spiking notably, and is up over 11% this morning, as the risk/reward swings even further to the downside. President Trump...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Stocks are irrationally exuberant again this morning after soaring in the overnight session as tensions at the Capitol subside, and Biden is (finally) declared the victor of the election. Is anyone surprised to see another gap up this morning? I'm certainly not, but I do suspect that as we approach the top of the white channel around 378, which is an arms length...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Stocks are being panic bid here at the open, so it's another win for central banks and hence the billionaire class. Blue wave, red wave, green wave, or purple wave, it means nothing folks. The way I see it, both the dems and the republicans want the FED to keep crushing the dollar through persistent easing of monetary policy, which primarily increases the wealth...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

So yesterday turned out to be the worst start to a year since 2016 for markets. However, this morning's sentiment is quite bullish, as investors panic bid the majors at the open. SPY is back at the 50 period MA on the hourly (370.57), which also happens to be converging with the 21 period EMA (370.30). If 370.57 holds up as resistance, we could see a sharp...

Hedge_Of_The_World Updated 

Happy New Year guys! I hope everyone had a relaxing and enjoyable holiday season. Let's get right into today's analysis: Stocks have gone wild! We're seeing essentially every risk asset on the planet melt up as the dollar continues it's slow, and incredibly painful demise. The money supply continues to rise as investors raid their savings accounts, and banks lend...