Using historical BTC drawdowns on the weekly charts, I calculate a simple average duration and drawdown percentage based on the starting point of the bearish LMACD cross and again on the first bullish LMACD crossing, and use the historical averages in duration and price drawdown to estimate potential scenarios for a similar drawdown position here.
Here we see BTC following a Wyckoffian accumulation pattern.
If it plays out, right now we're pretty much hovering near the bottom of the movement and a hold from here might see it go lower in shorter time frames, but over longer time frames (days/weeks) should see your allocations rise in value as the wyckoffian move back up to the north side of the range and...
- Inverted H&S
- Bullish divergence developing
- Volume dropping, leading indicator for a move
- At the bottom of the pitchfork, so perfect time for a bounce assuming the trend holds
Does this chart make you bullish? Well, it's an inverted chart, so....
Prepare for pain
Elliott wave appears to be formed on this rising wedge on the hourly chart. I'd expect a bounce off resistance at the shown level back into an A/B/C Elliott correction, but if we clear the target area, there's really no resistance until 48-50k.
I'm watching for invalidation of this by dropping below the bottom trendline in the next few hours. Breakout fakeout is...
MATIC broke out of its large descending wedge that was formed during the market-wide downswing and has formed a nice little falling wedge. If it can hold that support level and show a bullish continuation, it's a decent setup for a long. I'd be targeting just south of the 1.618 fib as an exit point.
Here you can see that BTC Weekly chart is setting up with a pretty clear H&S pattern. The right shoulder has reached resistance levels with the left shoulder and is forming a shooting star candlestick, which generally signals trend reversal (in this case, bearish). To complete the H&S back to previous levels appears to place it in the 16-20k range.
You can see here that there's a clear relationship between BTC performance (and as a broader bellweather, cryptoassets in general) and VIX. When VIX spikes, the entire crypto market is typically at a bottom, indicating that BTC (and by extension, non-stablecoin cryptoassets) act as risk-on assets, rather than as volatility hedges in traditional markets.
