InnerMotionTrading

InnerMotionTrading

Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and...

InnerMotionTrading

The Summer rally continued this week on the back of strong earnings by Disney ($DIS) and the market interpreting CPI data as inflation cooling. However, I think the market internals are telling a more important story. This week, the market paced by the financials... on Thursday, the XLF tested the upper edge of its weekly expected move and ultimately broke...

InnerMotionTrading

This week's action was largely defined by two dynamics: Employment data, and sector rotation. After initially selling off on Friday after the Employment data drop, the market reversed course and rallied much of the day before ultimately finishing slightly down on the session. Despite trade being predominantly sideways in an 80 point range, the market extended...

InnerMotionTrading

Last week, the markets saw a strong move to the upside with the SPX closing just shy of 4150 (4133). The move was largely fueled by FED chair Jerome Powell's comments, as well as strong earnings out of mega market cap stocks such as AAPL and AMZN. AMZN rallied +17.5% on the week and is up a whopping +32% from its low on June 13th. A similar story for AAPL, which...

InnerMotionTrading Updated 

Conditions in Bitcoin have been improving over the past month since bottoming out around $18,000 in late June. After analyzing several factors such as market breadth, multiple time frames, and inter-market correlations, I am looking for Bitcoin to move slightly lower (maybe around $20,000) before ultimately making a move up to re-test the $25,000 area over the...

InnerMotionTrading

With things like housing statistics, employment data, and earnings from heavyweights such as GOOG, MSFT, and 3M, next week looks to be filled with potential market moving events. Most notably however is FED Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. While its no secret that we're headed into a world of higher interest rates, FED speak always...

InnerMotionTrading

Forecast ideas for the week of July 18th, 2022 Here are my thoughts about where the market may be heading over the short-to-intermediate term, and how it may get there... After selling off most of last week, the S&P has rallied about +4% off the July 14th lows. The rally was propelled mainly by tech stocks like AAPL and QCOM, as well as financials like MS and...

InnerMotionTrading

XLE looks like its forming a nice Rising Wedge on the daily chart. The bad news is we're heading into the Summer which usually leads to higher demand, and Rising Wedges aren't particularly good performers from a statistical standpoint. The good news is that they do offer about 2:1 odds of a reversal once the Wedge breaks. In addition, the momentum indicators are...

InnerMotionTrading

This chart is a super zoomed-out view of Silver priced in U.S. Dollars going back about 10 years on a Monthly time frame. While I think a very good trade idea could be coming a little later this year (2022), I think the thesis is best illustrated on the longer time frame. As you can see in the chart, Silver spent about a year and a half consolidating in a range...

InnerMotionTrading

Basically the same idea that I posted last week about the Bearish Divergence in $DXY but more time has passed, and it looks even more pronounced in the Euro itself. Pick your poison: /6E, /M6E, EURUSD are all good Long candidates to play this idea. Another good option could be to short /SFX - which is the Small Exchange's US Dollar Futures contract. If you don't...

InnerMotionTrading

With interest rates climbing steeply, the dollar has been strengthening against the $DXY currencies and has made a forceful move to the upside. As of the present date (4/12/22), there's a considerable Bearish Divergence forming. Its certainly possible that if Dollar could gain momentum over time - but it could also set up some nice trading opportunities if it...

InnerMotionTrading

I don't know if anyone actually trades this, but I've been holding some bags on this piece of crap for a couple of years (don't ask) and check in on it from time to time. It's been trading in a decent range for the past 6 months (give or take) and recently put in a new low at $0.66, creating a very mild Bullish Divergence. Its Correlation Coefficient to gold is...

InnerMotionTrading

The Macro trends of 2022 are no secret to any of us. Sky rocketing inflation and the war in Ukraine have lead to soaring energy costs around the world. As a result, Oil has seen a period of extreme volatility, reaching a high of closing high price of 129.44 on March 8th. As a result, the XLE has followed suit and is up about +30% year to date. Exxon, the largest...

InnerMotionTrading

Earlier this month, Costco made confirmation of an Eve & Adam Double Bottom chart pattern as it began seeing daily closes above the mid range between lows. This pattern indicates a fairly high probability (about 88%) of a bullish reversal relative to the sell off which from the recent all-time high (571.49) achieved on December 29th, 2021. Today, the price is...

InnerMotionTrading

This is a chart of the S&P Futures (ES!) showing a declining wedge pattern. While technical analysis is admittedly down on the list of my personal trading hierarchy, I think this particular formation is presenting some interesting implications and possible trade ideas. Macro factors not withstanding, I wouldn't be surprised to see either A) more channeling...

InnerMotionTrading

What is this? This chart is offering a look at the behavior of the Bitcoin Futures premium and how it tends to behave. The chart in the top position is a symbol I use to track the premium of the front month futures contract over the Perpetual futures (as a proxy for spot). In this case, the front month contract are the June futures, so the symbol is: ...

InnerMotionTrading

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is exhibiting characteristics of a rising wedge pattern. This chart is designed to illustrate the key features of the rising wedge, as well as discuss potential trading plans around the pattern. 1. The Eye Test: First and foremost, we can clearly observe a narrowing channel moving in an ascending direction which would ultimately form an acute...

InnerMotionTrading

The recent sell off in the bonds has been sharp and is having reverberations throughout the broader markets. This is a monthly chart looking at bond prices going back twenty years. I was surprised to find that although the current price action has felt extreme, the bonds are still well within a 2 standard deviation regression channel. I've drawn in some...