Itsallsotiresome

Itsallsotiresome

NQ at the daily view. NQ has evolved to the place where bears go to die or the bear graveyard. In their minds, every bear keeps thinking that they'll get the most juice of their shorts from the NQ. So convinced by their grand dreams of a crash, they blindly short the NQ and keep calling a top. The issue? They never checked liquidity levels, credit markets, or...

Itsallsotiresome

The VIX, VXN, and VVIX are all showing divergences. 1) The VIX made lower lows last week. However, the daily RSI made higher lows. 2) Recently, the VIX and RSI are both now making an uptrend. However, the VVIX is now in a downtrend. So that's a slight bearish divergence. 3) The VXN also made a bullish divergence with its daily RSI, yet the VXN remains largely...

Itsallsotiresome

NG at the daily. NG usually has a pullback in September due to cooler weather, but not quite freezing. There are several supports below. 2.24 and 2.08 will be kind of hard to break since they are the 400 and 300 DMAs. The lowest price that I see this going is 1.97. It's less likely, but Natty has a tendency to do the improbable. September's pullback may prove to...

Itsallsotiresome

This is the RVX at the daily view. The RVX has finally reached a decision point between the long-term wedge resistance and the supports below. Currently, the RTY is in a giant bull flag since August 3rd and doing a "correction over time." A correction over time is actually a bearish in the very short-term, but bullish in the medium-term. Currently, the RTY is...

Itsallsotiresome

VXN at the daily. The VXN refuses to close below 25. According to the PCQ, the P/C ratio for the NQ is at 0.62. With that many calls on the NQ, the VXN is recognizing this as excess greed. What's stopping the VXN from really acting out? High liquidity or a lot of available cash below. So as long as liquidity remains strong, the VXN will only make small jumps...

Itsallsotiresome

The VIX has been "dancing" for nearly 5 weeks now. That's when the VIX makes a weekly jump that keeps the VVIX above 105-110. The point is to buy enough time for the liquidity to decrease. Right now, the VIX is doing three things that caught my eye. 1) The VIX jumps every week just high enough for the VVIX to close above 105-110. The VVIX acts the implied...

Itsallsotiresome

By popular demand, here is the ES at the weekly view. Each line was a historical resistance or support in play since 2002-2017. It's as if the ghosts of past recessions came back to haunt us. The top historical resistance is around 3500-3600 by the time we reach there. If you copy these lines, you can see how these lines interacted with the ES since the March...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

VIX at the daily view. Well, I should've trusted my previous calculations. I said that the VIX would make a secondary jump on Wednesday or Thursday... and it did. I also said that it would just be a little hop due to high levels of available cash. The VIX did 3 things that makes me think it's doing "the dance." That's when the VIX jumps every week just high...

Itsallsotiresome

Dollar at the daily view. According to Bloomberg, the dollar has the highest short interest in all of its known history. Much like the NQ, what happens when shorts are overcrowded? You get a violent snapback to the other direction. The overall trajectory is still a downward channel for the DXY. That bias may change if the dollar somehow breaks the channel's...

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NG is still at a crossroads. It's stuck between 2 trend lines. NG has two paths that it could take at this specific level. 1) More likely - NG pulls back first just in time for the September slump. Mind you, there are several supports below. We got that trend line support, the 400 DMA, the 300 DMA, and the 200 DMA. The lowest that I can see this going down is...

Itsallsotiresome

ES at the daily view. The ES is behaving pretty predictably actually. I guess we know how this would end. 1) ES reaches all-time highs. 2) Overly eager bears will force their vision of a double top pattern followed by their dream of a crash. 3) Bears short with their leftover ammo then place their short stop at the most obvious place (around 3400). 4) High...

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NQ at the daily view. That bounce this morning was pretty predictable. 1) Liquidity is still high enough to hide a submarine in. 2) The bears were showing a lot of desperation on trading forums yesterday. 3) The stocks that have the highest short interest are among the largest market cap. www.nasdaq.com That was a recipe for another short covering rally....

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

NQ at the daily view. The NQ's bull flag played out a little earlier than I expected. The measured move for the bull flag would put the NQ right above 11500. What's stopping it now is my last historical resistance (orange line) which I named it the Icarus Line. I have no idea if the Icarus Line will hold. NQ is among the most overcrowded trades (long side)....

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NG at the daily view. NG finally played out its measured move from the inverse head and shoulders pattern during the summer and the bull flag from a few trading days ago. The original measured move was 2.48. NG made it to 2.465. Close enough. It's too bad that that I exited my long positions out of risk management. It's Natty after all. Right now, the NG is...

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RTY at the daily view. The Russell is still bull flagging. It's quite obvious by now. The downward movement is sometimes called "correction by time." A correction by time is not actually bearish. It means the Russell is consolidating for another move up. Unless the bears take the RTY down to the bottom of that flag pole, it's still bullish. The bears had a...

Itsallsotiresome

This is the TNX at the daily view. There are way too many retail traders who are trading precious metals blindly. The first rule in trading? Protect your profits (capital preservation). Generally, you cannot protect your capital if you're trading something that you don't understand. The ten-year note is important since it has an inverse relationship with...

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VXN at the 4 hour. I realized what I did wrong. It's been so long since I updated the VXN that I forgot to add in another channel line below. Whoops. Well, this means that either a volatility jump (more like a bunny hop) will either be within the next two days... That's if the VXN can reclaim that first support. If the first support is not reclaimed, then the...

Itsallsotiresome

Well, the little VIX bunny hop happened today. VIX briefly hopped to 22.5. However, high liquidity just smacked it back down like an annoying mosquito. This action shouldn't be a surprise really. That little hop was just enough to keep the VVIX alive again. There are two blue lines as resistance now. The light blue is the "old" wedge resistance. The plain blue...