Itsallsotiresome

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

VIX at the 4 hour view. The VIX refuses to go below the 20-22 support due to the high number of calls by retail traders. Put/Call ratio was steadily below 0.75 until the end of the day. The VIX dropped mainly when the P/C ratio increased throughout the day. The VVIX (volatility of the volatility index) acts as the implied volatility for the VIX. Right now, the...

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The VXN right now is priming up for a small jump. The projected jump should be within the next 2 days. Maybe Thursday. That said, if it cannot retake that support above, then the projected jump may be delayed until next week. It's why I have multiple support lines. The VXN acts as my "hourglass" of how long do I have before I exit my long positions. High...

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RTY at the daily. The title speaks for itself. The Russel is bull flagging at this point. Although, another pullback is projected around August 17-19. In the bigger picture, that pullback is merely a consolidation for the RTY. Liquidity is still very high. What would be the unexpected move? A pullback to lure the bears. A bounce and break a new high to lure...

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NQ at the daily view. It seems the NQ is revealing more of its hand. Taking a bigger picture look, the NQ is consolidating and bull flagging. Usually, the distribution phase ends near the end of summer. We are approaching that soon. There are still Robinhooders and FOMOers who are getting in on the tech hype. Institutions were selling to take advantage of that...

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Natural gas at the daily view. Natty is currently in a giant bull flag right now. Bears had nearly 2 weeks and every chance to take NG down. However, it didn't happen, yet. Unless that happens, Natty is consolidating for another leg up. The 300 DMA is at 2.08. The 400 DMA is at 2.24. That's why Natty has been bouncing between those two prices. Here is why...

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VIX at the 4 hour view. There are two blue lines which acts as wedge resistances. The sky blue line was the old wedge that broke yesterday. The darker blue line is the new (temporary) wedge resistance that was formed yesterday. The VIX went back to the old wedge resistance. When the VIX is like this, it's making a transition over to the new wedge. What does that...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

This is natural gas at the daily view. When it comes to natural gas, you have to think big picture first. Natural gas moves much slower and in bursts. During the summer, every trader and the mother was bearish on natural gas. What they didn't see was the inverse head and shoulders forming (marked with yellow curved lines). Natural gas' sentiment is still very,...

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VXN at the 4 hour view. It's been a while since I've done the VXN. It's no coincidence that when the VXN was sitting on supports, then NQ was primed for a pullback. From where the wedge is now and where the supports are, the projected volatility jump for the VXN is around August 17-19. If this sounds familiar, it's the same projected date range for the VIX and...

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ES at the 8 hour view. The ES pulled back and revealed that's it's in a bigger ascending wedge now. Ascending wedges are usually bearish after they break. That said, liquidity levels are high enough to go surfing in. What does this mean? It's going to be a slow grind up to the end of the wedge for the next week. The projected date for the wedge to break is...

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VIX at the 4 hour view. It looks like I still got it. I was right with my revised date range last Friday and yesterday. My date range for a VIX jump was Aug 10 to Aug 12. I say revised because my original dates were Aug 6 to Aug 10. However, the VIX algorithm last week showed me that supports have changed, so I had to adjust accordingly. It was worth it. The VIX...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

VIX at the 4 hour view. The VIX did something a little unusual. The VIX poked below tier II support below, but closed right above tier II support (second dotted green line). In addition, the VVIX closed right above 110. The VIX refuses to give up since the Put/Call Ratio was around 0.66 today. Normally, below 0.75 is considered extreme on the buy side. However,...

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This is the ES at the daily view. Time to look at the bigger picture. Every solid red, blue, or purple line is a historical support or resistance stemming from 2002-2017. Each line played a vital role in the ES over time and recently. Currently, there is no significant resistance until that last red line at the top. That was the historical resistance stemming...

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Gold at the daily view. Gold experienced a key reversal day back on 8/7/2020. I was wondering when it would be. It should not be surprising the gold is experiencing a pullback. For the past 3 weeks, gold was among the most overcrowded trades at the long side. A pullback is actually natural after a parabolic move like that. Don't get me wrong. I am very bullish...

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Natural gas at the daily view. Natural gas experienced a pullback. That shouldn't be surprising at all since profit taking after a spike up is normal. The lower blue line is the ascending resistance stemming from March 23rd. Interestingly, a long-term channel line is also acting as temporary resistance. So, natural gas has two choices. Either natural gas...

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This is the ES at the daily view. The ES has been stuck in an ascending wedge for several days now. This explains why the range has been so small lately. The ES should break this wedge by either tonight or tomorrow. Either A) we will get a blow off top pattern or B) we will get an immediate pullback. Scenario A is the better pattern to exploit. The parabolic...

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The VIX is doing the volatility dance once again. The VVIX was sitting on a major support at 105 on Thursday. The VIX corrected it by jumping just enough for the VVIX to stay above 105. The VIX is keeping itself alive. However, it had to bounce from a major support at 22. 20 is the line in the sand. Next week, the VIX will have to make a decision. Break the...

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Institutions continued their distribution phase in the NQ. Institutions are taking advantage of the tech hype and sending the profits to vital sectors in the economy such as financials, utilities, and transportation. The NQ overall gained nearly 8% since the first pullback on July 13th. The RTY or Russell gained nearly 14% in the same time frame. Why is that? The...

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Natural gas is finally in season due to the increased demand for A/C. Natural gas made an inverse head and shoulders pattern for the past few months. It met resistance right at one of my green lines. It's green because it will eventually become support in the future. Natural gas is very seasonal. Right now, the demand has increased due to the hot weather in...