Itsallsotiresome

Itsallsotiresome

Whelp, here we are. It looks like I was right. Since July 13th, this was RTY's time to shine. While the FOMOers and Robinhooders were chasing the tech hype in NQ, institutions resumed their distribution within the NQ. Institutions were selling tech shares and taking advantage of the tech hype. The settled cash was then used to invest in non-tech stocks that are...

Itsallsotiresome

Dollar strength at the 8 hour view. The dollar strength tested near a long-term support and finally bounced... for now. The dollar strength's bounce was able to provide a key reversal day in gold and stopped the momentum in silver. To me, that's a good thing. Why? This event may provide a decent re-entry into precious metals. The ultimate trajectory of the...

Itsallsotiresome

ES at the 4 hour view. It's pretty obvious that today had some profit taking in the morning. However, the ES rallied in the afternoon due to 1) high liquidity levels where there were a lot of available buyers below and 2) eager bears who are trying to get their money back and covered their shorts again. This is why you need to look at internal market data....

Itsallsotiresome

It's a legitimate question actually. I got no clue how to detect a pullback with silver. In precious metals, the price can be overbought and parabolic longer than anyone's expectations. Traditional indicators and price action readings tends to be useless. You have to know the overall demand of gold and silver and why people are buying into it. All I know is that...

Itsallsotiresome

It seems that liquidity is winning the battle so far. According to the internal market data, these are the highest levels of liquidity since January 2020. Due to this high liquidity, it's drowning the VIX. That doesn't mean pullbacks are completely eliminated. The VVIX has yet to close more than a day below 105. So, there is a possibility that the VIX is playing...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

This is the VIX at the 4 hour view. I had to adjust my support lines ever since the algorithms did a support test that was lower than usual. The VIX is now in a major support zone of 22-24. Conventionally, 20 is the line in the sand for volatility. However, conventional thinking is usually wrong - like how the markets will collapse by May. Why did I change the...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

This is the dollar strength at the 8 hour view. The DXY may have formed a possible double bottom pattern... for now. I wouldn't bet my money on it. The DXY is at a decision point right now. Either the dollar bounces from that double bottom and towards the middle or top of the downward channel or crash through a long-term support (blue line). However, if the...

Itsallsotiresome

Silver is finally catching up to gold. It seems that the monthly pullback was on July 30-31... near the 1st of every month. The issue is that silver is how at a key resistance level. Why didn't I enter into silver yet? It's because of the dollar strength. If the DXY has a confirmed double bottom pattern, we might see a bounce in the dollar... and a possible...

Itsallsotiresome

It seems that the distribution phase in the NQ is starting to slow down. Is it gone completely? Not really. Institutions are still selling tech shares. Take a peek at the Russell 2000. It's been making way more gains than the NQ proportionate since July 14th. Russell just made a new rally high. This is what distribution is all about. Sell the most bloated...

Itsallsotiresome

This is the ES at the 4 hour view. The ES has been in a multi-day ascending wedge for the past 6 trading days. Ascending wedge end in two ways. 1) Blow off top pattern - The price can skyrocket temporarily, plateau, then fall rapidly. This is the more volatile and profitable scenario. If it chooses this direction, then you can easily scalp the rise then scalp...

Itsallsotiresome Updated 

Dollar strength at the daily view. Currently, shorting the dollar and longing gold are at the highest level in nearly a decade. FOMOers and hedge funds have overcrowded into those two trades. As a result, the dollar had a short-covering rally to punish excessive greed. The bigger issue is the dollar is still closing below its 11-year-old channel. If the...

Itsallsotiresome

VIX at the 4 hour view. It seems that the VIX algorithms did a support test in the morning. So, I'm not absolutely sure if the second green line or the third green line is the flag support for the next two weeks. VVIX is still above 110. That tells me that volatility is not over yet. What's battling the VIX? High liquidity. Although liquidity just paused in its...

Itsallsotiresome

NQ at the 4 hour. I'm going to be upfront. I'm barely paying attention to the NQ or equities this week. The bounce was mainly due to biotech bouncing off a major support. NQ is sentiment driven at this point. That makes it a bit dangerous to trade now. I don't think we are going to have the same magic or amazing rise like we say in April to early July. Why am...

Itsallsotiresome

Whelp, third time was the charm. That red line was a historical resistance for the ES. Looks like I was right. The historical resistance at the ES would not hold for a third time. The market has a destination. That gap at 3330 from February is a good start. I would not be surprised if we get a new all-time high due to inflation and FOMOing. People blame the...

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Natural Gas at the daily view. Natural gas spiked up today which shouldn't be a surprise. It's about time if I may add. Natural gas had an inverse head and shoulders pattern in the last 3 months and it would skyrocket above $1.89. And that's what happened. Natural gas was in a volatility box for 3 months. It was building up energy for a breakout. That breakout...

Itsallsotiresome

Whelp, we are here again. We are at that historical resistance again. This time I am pretty sure the historical resistance will not hold for too long. Liquidity is still high according to the internal data. The price action indicates that this market has a destination up north. The dollar is collapsing helps push the markets up due to inflation. If it weren't...

Itsallsotiresome

This is the NQ's VIX (VXN) at the 4 hour view. The VXN is still trapped in its wedge and finally moving on to the lower supports. That said, the VXN is also playing the volatility dance. It's making several small volatility jumps to build up for a bigger one. With the VVIX closing above 105, the VXN and VIX are saying that they're not done quite yet. The...

Itsallsotiresome

Bitcoin at the daily view. Bitcoin has been operating off an angle/channel for years. The angle is pretty flat so that's why it takes forever for moves like these to happen. Now that the multiyear resistance has been broken, I plan on buying into BTC at pullbacks. With the dollar collapsing and equities climbing the wall of worry, Bitcoin should enter into its...