JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Wednesday afternoon, the Fed shares with us their view on monetary policy in the US. In advance of the news events, we like to take a step back and assess the patterns on the chart to identify some key levels to watch out for. This allows us to detach as best as possible when the news is released. Going into the news Wednesday afternoon, we're following this...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Wednesday morning (in about 10 hours) we have the Bank of Canada releasing their latest monetary statement. Economists are widely expecting the BOC to hold rates at 50 bp. However, there is some speculation that the recent weakness in oil prices may be a reason to drop rates and leave open the door for negative rates into the future in an effort to help the...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

I've been watching the Sterling closely lately. Though I think we are looking at long term weakness in Sterling, this chart paints a compelling picture of some near term strength brewing for GBP. (GBP/USD paints a similar picture too). 2 points that converged near 164.60: *1 year standard deviation channel typically contains prices *1.618 extension for wave...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

For those intimate with Elliott Wave counting, check out this chart. The EUR/USD and AUD/USD have been diverging in price over the past few days creating some large moves in the EUR/AUD cross pair. The Elliott Wave picture has a wave count that suggests a wave 3 of iii underway from the Jan 19 low. If this is the case, then prices are likely to aggressively...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Tomorrow morning, the US Non-Farm Payroll report will be released which could create some volatility for the USDollar. Today's post is meant to provide a frame work of levels to monitor so when the news is released, we can follow our own plan rather than getting emotionally driven by the market. After careful study of the price action since early December, there...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Last week, we shared an Elliott Wave count which was medium term bullish based on a diagonal pattern that may be ending soon. Today, I would like to add a little twist and another variation of the count. The resolution is similar to the post from last week except prices may dig a little deeper. Under the count above, 1.4639 is the key level that keeps (iii)...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Taking a step back, this move from the summer 2015 highs is either a 'B' wave or a diagonal of some sort. This could be a leading diagonal lower in a wave 3, but the higher probability count is an ending diagonal of a 'B' labeled in the chart above. The wave relationships play out to where the Dec low occurs near 1.618 at multiple levels. Based on the wave...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Multiple Elliott Wave patterns are lining up that suggest EURUSD may fall towards 1.0750. 1) In the context of a medium term bull trend, an a-b-c expanded flat from Dec 3 points to 'c' of 2 to 1.0750, then a larger bull run kicking off 2) A wave 4 triangle suggests this move from Dec 3 to Dec 9 was 'a' of a triangle. 'b' of a triangle likely presses towards...

JWagnerFXTrader Updated 

Today's drop penetrates deep enough into a support zone to consider the risk to reward ratio of a long position. The long position would be based on the current drop being wave iv and that means a wave v higher may begin soon. This pattern is valid so long as prices are above 121.49. First target would be 124 and a secondary target up near 125.35. Below 121.49...

JWagnerFXTrader

It appears the Kiwi has been building impulsive moves higher followed by corrections lower. From an Elliott Wave perspective, circle wave 3 stopped at the 1.618 extension of the circle wave 1 measurement. This is a common relationship between '3' and '1'. If this is the case, then the proposed wave '4' should hold above the Nov 19 wave '1' high of .6593. ...

JWagnerFXTrader

Tomorrow morning at 8:30a ET, the US Non Farm Payroll report is scheduled to be released. This could impact the EURUSD as the USD has been strengthening on the heels of a strong payroll report in November. With today's post -ECB move knocking on the door of 1.1090, we have a critical level of which we can consider trading around. First off, if prices remain...

JWagnerFXTrader

We have major news coming out later this morning and tomorrow that could dramatically effect EUR/USD. This post is made in advance of the news to establish a plan prior to emotions running high during the potentially volatile events. The Elliott Wave count appears mature to the down side. The sloppy and overlapping continuation lower over the past 2 weeks...

JWagnerFXTrader

EURUSD dropped today into a zone that likely creates a strong struggle between bulls and bears. The Elliott Wave picture is such that there is a bullish view and bearish view which both can be satisfied based on the current pricing. Therefore a meaningful push below 1.0800 or above 1.0950 begins to elevate certain patterns and demote other patterns. Bearish...

JWagnerFXTrader

The Elliott Wave picture for the EURUSD indicates there is a higher probability bounce coming. The trend is down, so for those traders who missed out on this move lower will get a shot to short from higher levels. Under the preferred interpretation, it appears we are finalizing the 5th wave lower from the October 15 high. 3 different wave relationships show up...

JWagnerFXTrader

The pivot lower in the GBPJPY has been on the back burner as the EURUSD collapsed last week. It appears we have a leading diagonal lower in circle '1' that began on the Friday October 23 high. Coincidentally, we are showing Oct 23 as the highest volume day in over 5 years for the GBPJPY. If circle wave '3' finished at today's low, then a small bounce higher is...

JWagnerFXTrader

With the ECB prepared to announce their next round of genious analysis and monetary policy tomorrow morning, let's take a moment and assess the Elliott Wave picture for EURUSD. As we will do from time to time, we'll identify key levels to watch prior to news being released to establish the game plan before emotions run high. From a bigger picture, the sell off...

JWagnerFXTrader

USDJPY has been stuck in a sideways consolidation. The move off the October 2 NFP low has an impulsive 5 wave look to it. The resulting correction lower from Oct 5 to today landed at a confluence of wave relationships near 119.40. We are seeing this reaction at 119.40 and one potential outcome in Elliott Wave Theory is for a drive higher to 120.50-121.30. ...

JWagnerFXTrader

This pop higher on the Fed minutes may be enough to put the finishing touches on a minor corrective wave higher. There is a confluence of wave relationships near 1.1308-1.1340. 61.8% of the Sept 18-22 down trend = 1.1323 (c) = (a) = 1.1317 Blue corrective channel trend line = 1.1340 Wave y = .618 * w = 1.1308 Therefore, we are anticipating another down...