JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

Gold has a couple of bullish interpretations listed below. Before I get into them, even though this piece is about 2 bullish interpretations, the market can prove both of them wrong so please don't expect this to be 100% correct...nobody has that magic wand in their hand. The preferred count is the wave 3 higher written about 2 weeks ago is still alive, albeit...

JWagnerFXTrader

The Elliott Wave picture on the USDJPY is slowly clearing up. It appears the Elliott Wave triangle terminated on Sept 25. It is common to see the 'e' wave of the triangle break the a-c line (the red line) while holding below the wave 'c' extreme. Subsequent that rejection, we have a 5 wave sell off that cleanly matches up and holds many wave relationships of an...

JWagnerFXTrader

Last week, we touched on 1.5650 being the maximum price zone that would keep this bearish wave 3 count alive. Lo and behold, the nerves were tested this morning as price hung out near 1.5650 for a couple hours. There were 3 points intersecting near 1.5650. • Wave c = wave a = 1.5640 • 78.6% retracement of the August to September sell off = 1.5674 • Wave (ii) =...

JWagnerFXTrader

We wrote a couple weeks back on Gold breaking out to the upside. After giving the market a few days to develop its waves, it appears a bullish 5-3 sequence has unfolded to the upside. This presents a higher probability scenario that we may see at least one more 5 wave sequence higher. That means we probably have room to $1190 if not higher based on the longer...

JWagnerFXTrader

The sell off from this morning has popped outside of the purple channel. Therefore, it appears to be a smaller degree wave 'x' and we are working on a wave 'y' higher. Based on wave relationships, this places a potential reaction zone in the 1.14-1.15 area. This runs a similar pattern to the GBPUSD we wrote about last week. Traders can place their risk above...

JWagnerFXTrader

The GBP/AUD has caught my eye. Prices have been contained inside a nice rising support channel. Yesterday, that channel was tested which establishes a low point for us to consider breakout trades to sell. Zooming out, there is a confluence of wave relationships in 2.20-2.22 from 2 different sources. 1) 61.8% retacement from the 2008 high to the 2013 low 2) ...

JWagnerFXTrader

Please read this post while also reviewing the intraday GBPUSD posted earlier today. This post on the Daily Chart shows an alternate bullish view. My preference is the 3rd wave bearish view listed on the 180 min chart, but we need to keep this one in mind as well. A meaningful push above 1.5650 will elevate this count on route to a 1.6000 retest. I have noted...

JWagnerFXTrader

The previous 2 down waves for Sterling appear to be impulsive. This sets up a bearish scenario that we’ll look to position for. The main EW count shown on the chart above suggests we are grinding higher in a wave (ii). This should be a partial retracement that likely terminates below 1.5650. The sweet spot of a reversal is in the 1.5500 area. If prices are...

JWagnerFXTrader

As we approach major news events, one exercise I like to do is assess the possible wave picture before the event so when the volatility of the event hits, I'm mentally prepared with a plan. For anybody that has traded for a while, we've been caught in 'chasing' mode during a volatile news event countless times and it is no fun. What strikes me is that Thursday's...

JWagnerFXTrader

The USDJPY chart is looking quite similar to the SPX500 chart. The wave picture appears incomplete to the downside. The current upward push terminated at a former swing low and is within the bounds of a 38-50% retracement of the preceeding 3rd wave. Therefore, we are anticipating a fifth wave lower to retest Monday's low near 116. Here are the internals we...

JWagnerFXTrader

As we are about 90 minutes for the US Stock market bell ringing, overnight price movements suggest a gap higher on the opening. Assessing the wave pattern and wave measurements, it appears this opening gap likely will get faded as we retest the lows from yesterday. Prices could drift as high as 1970 and still be within the realm of a normal upward correction...

JWagnerFXTrader

Today’s rejection at 1.1720 coincided with multiple wave relationships. It is difficult to determine which count is standing out as the confluence includes relationships from the top 2 counts. We’re leaning towards another 1 or 2 series of down-up sequences which suggests slightly higher prices. Therefore, the better risk to reward ratio trade suggests waiting...

JWagnerFXTrader

2 months ago we identified Gold as a market that “the wave picture on Gold is simple, though the timing of the trade may prove difficult.” From a bigger picture perspective, Gold was close to finding a meaningful bottom. We went on to say “There is a false breakout zone from 1060-1131 which means so long as prices hold above 1060, this wave counts suggests the...

JWagnerFXTrader

The Loonie has been slopping around sideways for the past couple of weeks. Back on July 22, we wrote about the possibility of a multi-hundred pip sell off. After a brief dip, prices drifted higher from July 29-Aug 4. The Aug 4 peak occurred at a level where a wave relationship suggests the possibility of a deeper sell off (see wave relationships below). The...

JWagnerFXTrader

This pair appears to be nearing or has already finished a sequence to the upside that may finalize an upward double correction. We'll use the grey trend line break to determine a short term top is in place then consider short trades back down towards .69. So this is a break out trade and risk can be set just above the swing high. Longer term charts (not shown)...

JWagnerFXTrader

EURUSD continues to carve a sequence of 3 wave moves. The pattern since mid-July shows an equal wave zig zag followed by a flat correction. Nothing earth shattering from a trading perspective as indicators are mixed which supports the idea we are stuck in a correction of which we are currently in the middle. Look for extreme edges of the range to consider...

JWagnerFXTrader

Yesterday, Banco de Mexico (Mexico's central bank) announced a committment to sell 200 million USD daily, if needed to contain the Peso sell off. Though this trend has been firmly planted to the upside, symptoms of a pause are bubbling up to the surface. The Banco de Mexico news comes at an interesting time. 1) Elliott Wave Count - We could be near the...

JWagnerFXTrader

Last week, the Kiwi hit the top end of a target range we have been watching. How much, if any move is left? On the heels of the RBNZ 25 basis point rate cut today, some cracks are beginning to show up in the NZDUSD foundation. Governor Wheeler suggests this is it regarding cutting for a while and prices have rallied today. 6680 may provide resistance in the...