JWagnerFXTrader

JWagnerFXTrader

2 weeks ago we published an analysis for positioning long the USDCAD. We noted “if we successfully break above 1.28…then I’m eyeing 1.30-1.31”. We can now dial in with more precision where this zone is. There is an elevated probability we’ll see a reaction lower taking place in the 1.3050-1.3150 price range. This doesn’t mean prices WILL trade lower. What it...

JWagnerFXTrader

Sterling is carving out a sequence of overlapping 3 wave moves which is giving the appearance of a triangle. If that is the case, we are working on the 'D' leg of the triangle. The key element that is tipping me off to a trading opportunity is the 5 wave move higher from July 8-July 15. This is a leading wave and takes the shape of 5 waves. Therefore, there is...

JWagnerFXTrader

With price meeting Nov 2014 low, technical traders are looking to the current level as a hot spot, where a reaction higher or break lower is likely to occur. The retail sentiment at FXCM is showing 4 times as many traders who are long versus who are currently short. These short traders become a pool of future sellers when they decide to close out their...

JWagnerFXTrader

Last night, we posted about the potential for a leading diagonal on the EURUSD (see the notes at the bottom of “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote”). The pair has continued to play that tune which implies: • A tradable low is in place at 1.0915 which coincides with scenario #2 in the “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote” (see green notes on...

JWagnerFXTrader

The USDCAD appears to be carving out some impulsive moves higher. This makes sense given that USOil has been slipping lower and appears poised to revisit $45/bl. There is a cluster of wave relationship showing up in the 1.27 handle. If we successfully break above 1.28 (I’m showing a small degree false breakout zone of 1.2800-1.2820), then I’m eyeing...

JWagnerFXTrader

Many times in the past, I’m asked how/where you begin counting Elliott Waves. There are 3 patterns I look for: 1) 5-3 combo, 2) Equal Wave Patterns, 3) Triangle patterns. This morning, a triangle came to light that unlocked some wave relationships that are causing me to change my tune on Oil. (For those who attended the US Opening Bell webinar this morning, I...

JWagnerFXTrader

It has been 2 weeks since we posted on the GBPUSD (“Elevated Probability of a 200 Pip Sell Off”). The sell off cut deeper so the higher probability counts are getting shifted around. It appears there are support and wave relationships coming from multiple angles into the 1.5450-1.5550 zone. So the higher probability opportunity is to trade around that...

JWagnerFXTrader

With the highly anticipated referendum vote coming out of Greece this weekend, emotions will likely be running high on the open of trading Sunday for the EURUSD. With a highly charged event coming soon, I like to take a step back and assess what the waves are suggesting so as not to rely on other’s analysis and their opinions once the news is released. First of...

JWagnerFXTrader

This drop below 1.1200 on the EURUSD is significant and clears up the wave picture. Also, Sentiment has shifted significantly from last week to today. Sentiment went from 70% short last week after FOMC to now sitting at 60% short. Last Tuesday, June 16, we highlighted 2 higher probability options which called for shorter term bullish moves. (see "EURUSD...

JWagnerFXTrader

The technical pattern on the EURGBP suggests the EUR may out perform GBP over the coming days. While many traders are fearful of trading EUR due to the Grexit risk, EURGBP may be one vehicle to participate while stripping out USD exposure. From a techincal perspective, the EURGBP has appeared to carve out a 5-3 bullish pattern. This is an Elliott Wave pattern...

JWagnerFXTrader

As described on the chart, the wave picture looks unfinished to the upside for Gold. Eventually, I'm looking for a move above 1300 and possible as high as 1450. This would result in a larger degree of trend 3 wave move higher that began from the Nov 2014 low. So far, we appear to have A-B in place. We may be in the midst of circle C higher. If that is the...

JWagnerFXTrader

GBPUSD has caught my eye recently. Today's high is an interesting juncture where multiple wave counts suggest at least a 200 pip sell off. In light of the fundamental news out of UK and the recent Sterling strength, this is a tough one to swallow. No real oscillator divergence is showing up yet. However, in sticking to the technicals on the chart, each of the...

JWagnerFXTrader

GBPJPY is casually on my radar. SSI (sentiment reading) is showing twice as many sellers as buyers. These sellers have already committed to their position so they become a future pool of buyers. From a technical perspective, 195 is the 1.382 expansion of the Dec 2014 high. Much higher than 195 and we exit the false breakout zone (from an elliott wave...

JWagnerFXTrader

See the notes on the chart for the wave counts we're following. Additional commentary below. Since the June 4 high, the waves in the EURUSD have become muddied. We wrote about some possibilities the muddied picture presents on June 10 "EURUSD Bears Waking Up". At that point, we were leaning towards a multi-hundred pip sell off. A sell off did ensue, but not...

JWagnerFXTrader

Current retail positioning on the NZDUSD is +3.75 as 79% of traders are currently positioned to the long side of the NZDUSD trade. This is important because if the pair continues to drop significantly, these traders will likely get stopped out, margin called or simply close their trade out of frustration in the position. This means they become a future supply of...

JWagnerFXTrader

The wave picture has gotten fuzzy over the past 24 hours. I am beginning to lean more towards today's high as a 'B' wave which suggests a mutli-hundred pip sell off is on the horizon. If it develops, I'll adjust the labels on the chart when counts get eliminated. Note the divergence on RSI...that is also indicative of B waves and ending waves. On a side note,...

JWagnerFXTrader

The dip to this morning's low lines up with 2 wave relationships. I redrew the red 2-4 channel lines to 'frame' the potential stopping point for wave v. The dip was anticipated (see "Channel Support for USDJPY at 124.50 and 123.00") and reached: 1) 38.2% retracement of wave iii 2) Equal wave measurement from the June 5 high to this morning's low As a result,...

JWagnerFXTrader

One of the things I like about Elliott Wave analysis is that it helps us determine trend and where are are at in the trend. I'm currently listing the pair as in wave (iv) of blue circle v of purple 5. As you can tell by the count, we are approaching a major top. For those not familiar with Elliott Wave five waves are in the direction of that trend. According...