JaxonWilde

JaxonWilde

Not going to trade this! Just posting it to look back at later. I noticed that the spikes in volatility appear to happen with the same amount of time between spikes. After the spikes, the decent appears to have the same slope (which makes sense given the decay in this product). Using Fib retracements, the spikes reach and turn approximately around the 0.382...

JaxonWilde Updated 

I was trying to figure out this sideways move we have made over the last month. I think this could be a Triangle correction pattern. This would fit with the larger wave count and would complete Wave 2 up. That would mean Wave 3 down could be starting next week. I am waiting until we break below the purple line as confirmation before adding to my short (RWM) position.

JaxonWilde Updated 

It looks like we broke the uptrend and broke the wedge pattern today. Key support seems to be around 136.30 with a new low at 133.25. Breaking below though those levels would confirm a new downtrend. Considering the unemployment and COVID still not under control, it would make sense to have another pullback.

JaxonWilde

Looking at a monthly chart, the Nasdaq is well outside of any long term regression trend channel. MACD is extremely high with large divergence. RSI is high and now pointing down after this pullback. This could be the start of a major correction. Looking to shorter time frames for additional indicators.

JaxonWilde

Taking a long view, the S&P is currently 3 standard deviations away from the mean. Even without additional economic headwinds, mean reversion would be likely. Add to that massive unemployment, COVID not being contained, social unrest, and an election that could flip Congress and the White House to the Democrats (regulatory uncertainty) and you have a recipe for a...