Jfielder_strat

Jfielder_strat

For longest time rates were concerned with oil prices and it looks like oil has peaked. But still, rates rise in the face of QT, a housing recession and falling oil prices? Rates must be chasing Natural Gas, the second larges input to energy inflation. Will Nat gas breakout or is this the end of the road?

Jfielder_strat

1) Currently in overbought territory 2) Approaching Triple-Resistance: - Big picture bear market trend - 200-day moving average - $430 level/previous resistance 3) Support at $415 50-day moving average 4) Support at the 50-day moving average

Jfielder_strat

Crude can no long rise on dollar weakness which suggest dollar strength should bring it much lower. In this case, expect inflation to further decelerate.

Jfielder_strat

$TLT, the ETF for long dated bonds just gapped up to break out of a bullish-reverse-head-n-shoulders pattern (daily chart). Also, the 21EMA is begging to cross the 50sma.

Jfielder_strat

Oil is pulling into trend resistance. With weak growth data and the Fed set to hike next Wednesday, this may be the peak in oil, as for yields. A break in oil could be just what Stocks are looking for, considering stocks have already priced in recession.

Jfielder_strat

$SPY is pressing a previous resistance level (392) as well as the March bear market trend. RSI is signaling relief rally although it all depends on earnings. If the dollar and rates can trade sideways in the short-term expect stocks to rally.

Jfielder_strat

The Yield curve has inverted a second time this year, signaling the shift away from short term treasuries into longer term treasuries. This has always been the signal going into recession.

Jfielder_strat

Dollar strength continues tightening financial conditions. Interest rate hikes will only intensify the move. Much like the Dot come bubble in 2000 and the 2008 Financial Crisis, yield curve inversion plus dollar strength coincide with a pending recession.

Jfielder_strat

As Crude breaks down, so do rates. Crude is the last domino to fall in slowing down inflation. Bond yields won’t come down until growth and inflation break down. The bearish head-n-shoulds pattern tells me bond yields are near a breaking point. Weaker than expected housing data should confirm the economic slowdown. The Fed is actively sucking liquidity from the...

Jfielder_strat

The Dollar spike crushed oil prices for a second week in a row. Although the $95 support line broke, crude oil reclaimed it by the end of day Friday. The inflation rate hit the highest level this year at 9.1%. However, Inflation is a lagging indicator because it measures the previous month's data (June). Remember that gas prices peaked in June, from which oil has...

Jfielder_strat

Crude oil is the #1 input to inflation, meaning a breakdown in price should lower the future expectations in inflation. If inflation expectations fall, bond yields fall. If bond yields fall, rates across the board fall. Stocks are forward looking, the bottom may be in if inflation eases and yield fall from here. In the this scenario, a retest of the lows is...

Jfielder_strat

Although crude has been climbing over the past couple weeks, the volume is actually decelerating. The RSI is also showing a bearish divergence. A breakdown would ease the economy and financial conditions. A breakout will cause more inflation and force the Fed to strike quick and hard.

Jfielder_strat

Bond yields appear to have peaked following last months peak in inflation and this months data suggesting a massive economic slowdown is around the corner. Is demand destruction signaling the bid in bonds, or does inflation have more upside ?

Jfielder_strat

Since breaking to new highs, $DXY is now below the "flight to safety" highs during from the pandemic. Growth is slowing, the Fed is tightening and the dollar is in position to ease financial conditions. If inflation makes a new high, it's probable to dollar bounces on it's yearly bullish trend to retest the highs. If it continues to fail, stocks and crypto should...

Jfielder_strat

The dollar is showing bearish divergence on top of dropping under longterm resistance. Headed lower?

Jfielder_strat

When growth deteriorates via Purchasing manufacturing Index, the fed is pressured into cutting rates. Although we are entering a slowdown you must be ready for growth to deteriorate and the fed to flip dovish. If and when it gets ugly, they will lower rates releasing liquidity into the system

Jfielder_strat

More pain ahead, but don't be get lost in the noise....we've seen this pattern before

Jfielder_strat

Support and resistance within the SPY bear market trend.