I'm a fundamental analyst first and foremost so I've been struggling with why gold hasn't been working as inflation accelerates to mid singles y/y percent growth and only looks to be going higher due to labor constraints. I thought $BTC and #crypto took share from gold but I now think most HF investors that were in BTC are out so not sure that is the case...
Gold seems to finally be breaking out of the bull flag/pennant that has been forming since Sept. Near term upside is ~5% but much more longer term on this trade and the whole commodity complex seems to be waking up.The only thing that perplexes me is there is no volume confirmation on $GLD or the futures, but maybe low holiday volume?
SPY just joined QQQ by breaking the lower boundary of a 10 month ascending wedge on above average volume. Potential for 40 points downside. There is also a double top whose neckline will be broken below ~285 level.
Tech has already been trading much worse than SPX and now Nasdaq has broken the trend line of a 10 month rising wedge on what is tracking to be at least above average and maybe high volume. There is 20% downside.
After finally breaking out of this massive symmetrical wedge is gold now going parabolic? There is a lot of fundamental drivers for gold ranging from global concerted central bank easing, that is quickly turning into a currency war, add to this a trade war slowing growth, and increasing geo-political risk.
