JonathanKrier

JonathanKrier

Probably the only way to do this on TV, but this using CME futures to estimate the FX adjusted yield on USTs. This isnt completely correct though, FX forwards are going to give you a much better price than FX futures will.

01:12

JonathanKrier

Spread between Chinese and JGB's appears follow Bitcoin (usd) pretty well. As expected: bitcoin is the exact opposite of a portfolio hedge, and just a call option (like Tom Lee has made the case for) for growth. Interestingly enough, falling rates appear to stimulate selling and rising rates entice buying.

JonathanKrier

The idea is self explanatory, based on the strategy. Short SPY/SPXL/DIA or short BTC are also synonymous and also work will update when trade closes (cover)

JonathanKrier

Kospi leading the way, weak forward guidance on NVDA has confirmed the huge divergence. $XSD already on this 200 DMA and looking like it might compress and fall through. Applying general global macro consensus, the declining commodities prices and liquidity being taken out of EM will also trigger a decline on imports from Korean's largest trading partners,...

JonathanKrier

BITFINEX:BTCUSD BITMEX:XBTM18 TOPS AND BOTTOMS: Bitcoin Guru's always tend to be able to do them effectively without any mis-steps or errors. When they're wrong; you should have done your own analysis, & when they're right; you're a noob if you didnt take that call. So why not just trade the opposite of what they say? is it possible to aggregate market...

JonathanKrier Updated 

The Volume is drying up, and this intermediate wedge looks like its going to fulfill to the downside. The summer break is also in a couple of weeks, beware of heavy selling into June. Note: Strategy is long only.

JonathanKrier Updated 

I'll finish everyone's thought on this topic with something you can actually execute on. Correlation coefficients are relative to two dimensions: Time and periodicity. Its important to understand that when plotting between these correlations, because in this case you could be missing over 50% of information. Bitcoin trades on a 24/7 market, while SPX/QQQ/NI225...

JonathanKrier

In previous posts i have been bearish in US equities, which has not changed as i am holding long dated SPY/QQQ puts. However there does present an opportunity for a long here in the interim. Ignore fundamentals for this trade. Play the technicals on this resolution.

JonathanKrier Updated 

Below describes the relative historical significance of the yield against SPX. other ratios to be cognizant of is the SPX/VIX

JonathanKrier Updated 

SYNTHETIC VIX -5.84% -5.84% on VIX -5.84% -5.84% ™ : Ascending triangle on the daily, vix -5.84% -5.84% fix fed into RSI (5) showing its reaching >70 of the range, along w/ a BB showing its peaking outside of the normal distribution. SPX/SPY/ES also showing similar reversal patterns as well, iHS -0.42% -0.42% seems looks like it is about to be null and void.

JonathanKrier Updated 

take the long on SPY. JNK and other high yield assets are continuing their bleed, which could mean that any type of positive reaction here will result in a dead cat bounce. Take the SPY long, and then look for a put to offset any downside risk.

JonathanKrier Updated 

15/75 RSI showing high likelyhood of a fakeout on the MACD. Good opportunity to open a short position in the next 24-48 hours. Don't rule out the possibility that we see more downside.

JonathanKrier

behold the holiest of grails

JonathanKrier Updated 

Ascending wedge, to a potential PT with historical liquidity (horizontal traffic)

JonathanKrier Updated 

HIgher yield usually hint towards inflationary measures by the fed, to which powell has already hinted at. This is something to really pay attention to give cadence into 2018.

JonathanKrier Updated 

Looking bearish. Sell the break down, look for horizontal support to cover.

05:12

JonathanKrier Updated 

We have to pay attention to whats going on in the general market, as its will really help us make sound choices going into the close of the market. Stay safe out there! The real money isn't made buying bottom or selling top; It's made after confirmation of trend.

JonathanKrier Updated 

We could be in for a wild ride. Remember, yield is about %'s not net profit.