Killy_Mel

Killy_Mel

Recent expectations in the media regarding Federal Reserve rate hike look a bit overblown. What the Fed is actually planning to raise is the Target Range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate. The Effective rate, however, now trades firmly below the upper border of the range (0.25%), signalling no actual pressure to raise the Target Range. The nature of this...

Killy_Mel

Since our last forecast, WTI Oil has fallen out of its lateral range into a full-fledged downtrend on quarterly basis (in relation to 66-day mean). The downtrend bias is confirmed on the long term picture: oil fell through 20-year moving average (now at 54.54) and also trades firmly below 1st standard deviation from its 10-year moving average (standing at...

Killy_Mel

Inventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current...

Killy_Mel

Since mid-summer 2014 the 10-Year Treasury Yield started correlating with WTI Crude Oil, which can be seen on the image below: The correlation was established as a result of dynamics of oil prices, when falling oil was perceived as a risk to inflation. Expectations of lower inflation have driven the 10-Year Yield down with the WTI Oil. Market has perceived...

Killy_Mel

The S&P500 stock index is likely to hold its lateral uptrend, which started back in the beginning of 2013, when the "Fiscal Cliff" debate between the White House and the US Congress was resolved in a positive way. The event also marked an "official" end of consequences of 2008-2009 financial meltdown, eventually sending key stock indices above their 2007 peaks. ...

Killy_Mel

EURUSD is likely to continue its highly volatile lateral movement around is quarterly (66-day) moving average, within the approximate range of 1st standard deviations from the mean (their current span is 1.075-1.1340) The price also is likely to hold within relevant highs and lows (that is to trade between 1.0450-1.1470). Key reason for this is that EURUSD has...

Killy_Mel

WTI oil currently trades in the upper part of lateral quarterly (66-day) channel, that is above the quarterly mean (now at 56) and below the 1st standard deviation from that mean (now at 62). From the looks of it, WTI oil has a high chance of staying within current range (or at least close to it). Lets step back take a broader view of situation with oil...

Killy_Mel

Dow Jones US Paper Index is likely to keep falling if price holds below 1st standard deviation from its quarterly (66 day) moving average. However traders looking to short the index should be aware of pullback risks if price to hold above recent lows at 157.5. Best short positions are to be found closer to the 1st standard deviation, now standing at ~163.5.

Killy_Mel

Dow Jones Transportation average risks entering a new leg of downtrend, if the price holds below the 1st standard deviation from its quarterly (66 day) moving average (now at 8382.9). Risk will be confirmed by the price falling below recent lows (at 8248.7)