LotsOfLore

LotsOfLore Updated 

The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the second one, is alligned...

LotsOfLore Updated 

The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the first one, is alligned...

LotsOfLore Updated 

Continuing from the previous analysis, we have seen a pullback for support right on the major rising lower trendline @ ~1200. From there, a rapid inversion of the expectations for a fed rate hike have caused the dollar to fall and have risen the precious metal. There is no guarantee that this will keep going as full scale risk aversion hasn't yet kicked in....

LotsOfLore Updated 

An exercise of slope analysis on EUR/CHF, one of the pairs believed to be most suited for range trading (but beware of the Bank of Switzerland interventions!). A year long wide uptrending channel has formed which has certainly given a few entry opportunities. However, what I find interesting is the tendency that price had to form relatively tidy descending...

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EURUSD has crossed its 50 day EMA, then tested and broken the 200 day EMA as well. I'm watching closely the imminent testing of the lower ascending channel trend line at ~1.108. A break below such level could trigger a more significant descend towards the long term lower horizontal channel trendline at ~1.050. The recent downtrend has been motivated by the...

LotsOfLore Updated 

The recent break to the upside from a wide triangle formation has seen a significant, but common, pushback which seems to be headed back towards the line of breakout. A touch of the 200 day MA seems in order and then a test of the support area around 1.435 The Pound could break through support and head back down into the channel, targeting the 0.618 fibonacci...

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The recent break to the upside of a descending triangle channel looks promising, however to confirm a movement to the upside a break of the RSI descending trendline is needed. In fact, a short term bullish divergence can be seen forming in the RSI (green arrow), which if carried through could indicate the onset of a reversal. The price has found a strong long term...

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I made an index summing up three big US solar companies to try and see what's going on with this market and most importantly why isn't it soaring high like everyone's expecting... The reason is probably hidden somewhere in the regulation wars and the single companies financial health. There are plenty of articles around to read up on this. Somebody suggests a...

LotsOfLore Updated 

The recent breakout of the loonie from an exasperatingly stretched descending channel at ~ 1.27, gives hope for some upside. This is a projection of a possible rally following a basic elliot wave path calibrated with fibonacci levels. Shortly after the open this coming week I'll wait for a pullback and then enter long as shown with target at ~ 1.32. This position...

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Applying Elliot wave theory, a possible interpretation of the current price action could see a tactical pushback fullfilling the corrective wave C down up to the 0.618 fibonacci retracement target, which would also be a confluence level of a certain importance. Then, the rally could continue, especially on the wake of the "brexit" hysteria, or some other looming...

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An attempt of application of Elliot wave theory with fibonacci extension levels seems to indicate the end of a full impulse and correction wave cycle. The 5th wave in this proposition is viewed as an ascending triangle with a break to the downside. The recent rally from support at 11669 could be a reversal in formation, and the start of a range bound movement....

LotsOfLore Updated 

Based on fibonacci extensions, price looks to be forming a harmonic pattern of the butterfly type. All the checklist has been passed up to the point C. The price now seems to be moving up to D. If this pattern unwinds, it will be a barish XABCD and entry should be placed at D targeting the 38.2% - 61.8% retracement from the low at A: ~ 1.42022. Which also happens...

LotsOfLore

Short term short. Looking for support around the bottom of the pitchfork formation @ ~ 1237. Then, a rebound to the median line parallel. From there, we'll see. For the moment dollar strength seems to be confirmed, possibly sparked by the recent hawkish fed comments scattered in the news. Looking for today's high risk economic news to confirm dollar strength or...