the .618 is at 7420 and the .786 is at 6k.. those are the reasonable targets if this channel breaks and everyones hope of 10.5 and 9.7 failing to support institutional selling. if 10.5 holds then the channel will still be live.
Before halving or after who knows. Times are tough and about to get a lot tougher. The fomo folk who built the 20k run can't afford to speculate anymore, they need to buy food and pay rent.