Macro-Traders-Strategies

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Apple brought forward so much demand, how many iphone and tablets do you need to buy in 2023? Corporates are pretty much done with buying new iPhone for employees as a benefit, they will prioritize pay increases and cash flow instead! Western consumers have taken a huge hit on their disposable income, I cannot see them lining up for an incremental phone when...

Macro-Traders-Strategies Updated 

stagflation is the base case for the UK! I cant see the Tories winning in 24months time, so I expect the pound to start pricing in a Labour victory, which also means a spending round to get public services back to par! I really think the pound is now like a 3rd world country, when Labour comes into power, it will target the very rich, those who are mobile, and I...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Let me spell something out for everyone Digital workplace 1980s 2022 2026 & Beyond Memo > Email > Internet > Mobile > instant messaging > Video calling > Meta-verse As we move more, if not all of our collaboration into the digital world, we rely on...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Could we be mid-way through a super-cycle in gold? Could we? Judging by the news we are seeing a slow decline in the PetroDollar, which is a fiat currency built on trust and the number of nuclear weapons. This military power is denominated in Dollars, which used to be tracked in gold. Regardless of what the Crypto fanboys call out, there is only one money, and...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

The 10year is confused! will 2023 be bullish or bearish for earnings? We won't know until probably Q1 earnings, so until then markets will be volatile. If 10Yr heads to 5% you can bet earnings will continue to go higher, and S&P will become cheaper even at around 4000. if 10yr sells off and heads to 1.5% means the fed are cutting rates and earnings are dropping...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

The FED are at a risk of doing another 'Transitory' mistake! They said inflation is transitory, and now they are saying inflation has peaked! Cant help but think the Fed chair has no control and are wing it....

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Commodities by themselves are not deflationary! They are dug out of the earth, and that both needs technology and people! The demand for gold and silver is higher, it becomes even higher when there is an industrial application to it. Along with inflation, it cost more and more to refine and dig out Silver/Gold! it cost more for machinery and people. Is Silver...

Macro-Traders-Strategies Updated 

I am convinced the Fed cannot go beyond 4.25% interest rates, which they will hold for a year and then drop to 3.5% The ECB have yet to get to their terminal rate, probably around 1.5-2% and they start QT! Which means more tightening and support for EURO in the coming month....

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Like it or not! There are not many places advertisers can go! And if you don't believe in digital advertising or if you don't believe our lives are affected by the digital world then you can go buy Mall/retailers stocks. but for the people who believe that more of our decisions and influence will involve in the digital space, then META is the only place to be!...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Fed will pivot in the next meeting! We are AT or very close to PEAK rate hikes, certain at the end of '22 all the increases are priced in. Earnings is a different questions, since 70% of earnings are coming from overseas earnings, could see a 10% drop! But EURUSD could be a beneficially as ECB has just started raising rates

Macro-Traders-Strategies

2023 could be really ugly, especially for Europe. Considering EUROPE Is now in deep SH*T, with its entire energy policy dependent on cheap Russian gas, there is a high chance of spill over to the US. High inflation and high interest rates are a given until 2024, so the market has to price in teen PEs.....

Macro-Traders-Strategies

NVIDIA is heading for another 85% drawdown... Pelosi dumped her entire holding in July on a loss? why? because she knew this was coming and more restrictions will be coming which will impact current growth for NVDA

Macro-Traders-Strategies

How many ipads can you own? Do you want to pay for gas/utility or buy a new phone. Apple could see a 65-69% decline as recession is announces with 2nd half earnings are downgraded. If apple falls, it will take all of the indices down, SPX DOWN, Nasdaq DOWN, Dow DOWN Expect more layoffs under the guise of 'people not returning to work'...

Macro-Traders-Strategies Updated 

Forget the market, look at your neighbours, go to the high street, count the number of people walking vs driving to the small shop! We are already in a recession in Europe, UK and the US, it's just the data is not showing it yet. When it's down....then watch out below This will be at the same time when the Fed (having no choice) but to destroy the bizarre...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

The Fed tried its best to save the market, but now it cant save the markets again! and under the OLD Fed Regime the Technicals are screaming BUY THE DIP! and this is what you hear from CNBC guests who have been used to pump the market every time. Unfortunately for CNBC watchers, the Fed is no longer concerned about the markets and is now focused on tightening...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

The Fed tried its best to save the market, but now it cant save the markets again! and under the OLD Fed Regime the Technicals are screaming BUY THE DIP! and this is what you hear from CNBC guests who have been used to pump the market every time. Unfortunately for CNBC watchers, the Fed is no longer concerned about the markets and is now focused on tightening...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

the VIX is building up to something, we just don't know what it is yet, something big will happen at the end of the year. Either we get an explosion in the VIX as the recession is finally here and there are clear signs of growth falling off the cliff, or there is an explosion in the markets (from around 3500) as the market starts to price in a soft...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Bitcoin was born in QE1, went to the moon in QE4 and will die in QT. In 2018 when the Fed signalled the end of easy money and didn't even start shrinking its balance sheet , Bitcoin sold off to nearly 85%. It rallied hard at the start of 2019 when the Fed did an about-turn and stopped shrinking the balance sheet , cut rates and starts expanding again. It went to...