MarkLefevre

MarkLefevre

Bitcoin weekly close divided by the 400 week SMA (close). Incredibly precise linearity with the last two market cycle tops. Of note is this metric's capture of a single maxima last cycle and a similar peak happening currently. This might not be a market cycle top, but caution is called for here.

MarkLefevre

The Bitcoin USD price first derivative of the 40 week SMA is equal to its level in March 2020 as the weekly candle closes at this Market Cycle's support band, the 40 Week Simple Moving Average, just as it did in February 2020 weeks before a 65% correction.

MarkLefevre

BTCGOLD monthly line chart, which uses monthly close data. Obvious long term resistance line and clear major topping pattern on the most recent maximum showing connection with the last market cycle top (both of them.) What does it mean? It means there's useful information in the BTCGOLD chart that isn't priced in. It also means the most recent correction is a...

MarkLefevre

This is a 10 year chart of the 20 Week SMA of the US 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield. The simple moving average of the US10Y formed similar head and shoulder patterns, one inverse, before the last two large reversals.

MarkLefevre

This Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield. Basis = 10 Year SMA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their...

MarkLefevre

Standard 10-2 yield curve, zoomed out and smoothed, shows this time is not different. In fact, if you made the correct assumptions in the 1980s you could have calculated exactly what is happening today using some kindergarten mathematics. Remember that when the crisis unfolds and the news rationalizes the recession and market corrections that are right around the...

MarkLefevre

Confluence of many significant long term indications showing it's about to start raining bond profits like it's 1981 On the chart: -4 month Heiken Ashi candles -6 period low RSI -25 period RSI MA -RSI-RSI MA -RSI-RSI MA MA -25 period DyDX of RSI_RSI MA MA

MarkLefevre

Bitcoin "priced" in US Dollars (ie the number of Dollars you can trade for 1 Bitcoin divided by 1 Bitcoin but leaving the number 1 in the denominator invisible as a stupid stone aged esoteric shenanigan used to make you forget about the role of currencies in the taxation and control of your everyday life) has only simultaneously met these 2 conditions twice in...

MarkLefevre

12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very...

MarkLefevre

Traders are celebrating the enormous 10% surprise Bitcoin breakout. Have they heard of trends and divergences?

MarkLefevre

On US presidential election day, as a Donald Trump victory began to look certain, US Treasury yields experienced a startling increase in the span of a few hours. Truly extraordinary. But is this the start of a new trend or just an acceleration of the old trend? The US10Y was so far rejected at resistance it was preordained to test. Maybe nothing has changed and...

MarkLefevre

The percent deviation from model of second order measurements is one of the most useful metrics for timing the Bond Market. Shown here is the percent deviation of the 30 period close Monthly RSI from its 60 Month Simple for the US 10 year Treasury Bond. The only time in history it has deviated this much was the Great Depression.

MarkLefevre

This is the complete history of every Bitcoin Monthly RSI bearish divergence. Incredibly, all that work you've been doing analyzing the Bitcoin chart was inferior to just looking for simple RSI divergences, which have called every cycle top in Bitcoin's entire history. And done so with precision.

MarkLefevre

Retest of support after major breakout of the TLT5 exactly at historic bond moment, slope of the 20 Week SMA crossing over simultaneously. BBOT

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD may have broken its 7 month resistance and is currently retesting it as support, but BTCEUR was precisely rejected at the trend.

MarkLefevre

Slope of the 20 Week SMA of EURoUSD coincides nicely with all Bitcoin macro events such as cycle tops and bottoms. Interesting linearities abound. Haven't dug into this at all, so lots of room for improvement.

MarkLefevre

Sorry, no breakout here. Just an exact, perfect, rejection from the longest running resistance in Bitcoin's history, from the perspective of Bitcoin's USD market cap.

MarkLefevre

BTCUSD ratio with CRB Commodity Index shows failed retest of long term macro resistance. Sorry, folks, no breakout here.