Michael_Stark_Exness

Michael_Stark_Exness

Cable reached six-month intraday highs even above $1.32 on 3 April after the American government announced sweeping new tariffs and panicked many investors and traders. Now, though, most of these have been reversed after an unusually better than expected job report from the USA. Politically, sterling seems to be among the less vulnerable currencies now since the...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold posted its first weekly loss in a month on 4 April as the American job report came in much stronger than expected amid the backdrop of general fear in markets after the start of the new phase of the trade war. Usually the yellow metal has a degree of inverse correlation with major indices, but in the current situation of an ongoing crash for the S&P 500 and...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Havens generally had a significant boost from Donald Trump’s latest announcement of sweeping new tariffs, with the yen in particular showing strong overall gains in most of its pairs. Flight to safety has been the primary driver for the yen in the last couple of days. The yen’s expected higher yield later this year could now be questioned because the impact of...

Michael_Stark_Exness

With new tariffs likely to have a significant negative impact on the American economy, the euro made strong gains against the dollar in the aftermath of the announcement. Against these, inflation in the eurozone cooled to 2.2% according to the flash release for March. The consensus is for a total cut of 0.65% by the ECB for the rest of 2025, which in itself is a...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Euro-dollar’s strong uptrend has continued in the last few days amid general weakness from the dollar and a generally negative reaction to inconsistent messaging on tariffs. Lower American inflation reduces the pressure on the Fed to keep rates high while recent comments from the ECB’s Executive Board seem to reduce the probability of immediate further cuts. As...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Gold has held close to record highs since last week as geopolitical risks remain high. The latest American tariffs on steel and aluminium – including from friendly nations and blocs like the EU and Britain – were met with an announcement that 2018 European tariffs on American products would resume from 1 April. Uncertainty over trade wars is extremely high as both...

Michael_Stark_Exness

7 March’s NFP was an important catalyst for euro-dollar to move up more even though it generally wasn’t much weaker than expected. It must be stressed that the last few days have been truly exceptional: EURUSD is on track for its best weekly performance in around 16 years. Recent news of increased spending on defence and revised limits on national debt in the...

Michael_Stark_Exness

In the context of trade wars and particularly direct rhetoric between the USA and China, ‘risk off’ remains clear across most markets, which works in gold’s favour. 7 March’s NFP wasn’t very significantly weaker than the consensus but in the overall context of sentiment seems to have given gold and major currencies a boost against the dollar. A fairly large...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Cable has massively outperformed in recent days due to a range of different factors. Probably the most important of these has been less dovish expectations for the Bank of England this year after various members of the Monetary Policy Committee highlighted risks of higher inflation due to relatively strong earning and job data. Sentiment also received a boost from...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The yen has generally continued to perform well in recent days as participants continue to focus on probable further tightening by the Bank of Japan this year as the outlook for rates in the USA has become somewhat more dovish. Although unemployment rose slightly in Japan to 2.5% last month, the job market there is overall quite strong while Japanese annual...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Despite mostly positive data from the UK recently considering the circumstances, the yen remains relatively strong against the pound compared to much of the last quarter. Demand for havens is still high as trade wars between the USA and various other countries continue while participants widely expect the Bank of Japan to continue hiking rates moderately this...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The pound has generally done better against the dollar since around the middle of last month amid moderately strong data from the UK considering the circumstances. Inflation, preliminary GDP and average earnings have all beaten expectations at least slightly this month. Meanwhile the dollar’s long uptrend against various currencies has mostly paused for breath in...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Euro-dollar declined somewhat in the aftermath of slightly stronger American inflation but with relatively low volatility. Central banks’ expected policies in the next few months broadly favour the dollar, but the impact of the trade war is more ambiguous. With $1.02 and $1.05 looking like important areas of support and resistance respectively, EURUSD might be...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Higher inflation and the lower probability of the Fed cutting again in the first half of 2025 has put some pressure on gold despite sentiment overall remaining very strong in recent weeks. Meanwhile various other major central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England remain more dovish and demand for havens is high amid trade wars and a...

Michael_Stark_Exness

The Bank of England’s meeting on 6 February somewhat overshadowed the NFP for cable given the significance of the announcements then. Although the cut to 4.5% was quite widely expected, the BoE also cut its forecast for growth in half to 0.75% for 2025 while its outlook for inflation rose to 3.7%, much higher than the previous estimate of 2.8%. That the BoE seems...

Michael_Stark_Exness

After an initial reaction downward, gold pushed back up in the aftermath of the job report to retest 5 February’s all-time high. Demand for gold has been consistently high in 2025 so far and the new trade wars between the USA and various other countries have participants somewhat nervous, boosting demand for havens. The current situation close to the all-time...

Michael_Stark_Exness

USDJPY reached a two-month low on 6 February as senior members of the BoJ and the Japanese government commented that inflation is likely to continue rising in the country. Growth in average Japanese earnings remained relatively strong. The BoJ’s next meeting is still more than a month away but, for now, a hike then seems questionable. Japan hasn’t been...

Michael_Stark_Exness

Tariffs and rumours of more to come have affected the euro negatively recently although data from the EU in the last few days have generally been strong. Looking at the big picture, though, the difference in rates between the ECB and the Fed is likely to stay similar or possibly increase in the next few months, so that still seems to be the primary driver of...