NateVal7

NateVal7

On the first iteration of this chart I placed the final position of the third arc in August of 2021 (pink arc), but the placement wasn't sitting right with me. I wanted to incorporate other information including some info from the individual SPX and VIX charts. 1) SPX looks like it could have a top around 4500 based on Fibonacci. That would also give a...

NateVal7

I was looking at March (being the close of the first quarter) for some volatility and perhaps market catastrophe, but interest rates are signaling otherwise. Demand on the short end of the curve was increasing into February 4th and 5th, but seems to have decreased some as the interest rates on the 1, 3, 6, 12 month treasuries have increased slightly. Interest...

NateVal7

Starting to look like a good back test on the DXY. We'll see how today's close looks. It's got a nice inverted head and shoulders to close out the descending wedge patter that formed since March. In 2008 the dollar ran from 71 to 89 through the crash over about 220 days. Keep a sharp eye on the DXY wrecking ball.

NateVal7

Miners are supposed to be more volatile than the metal. Today's (2/1/2021) pre-market movement has the silver price moving more than the miners. That's backwards and a clear sign of a frenzy. Big risk, big reward (or loss). Someone must be influencing the price wildly... oh wait... Everyone, please welcome WallStreetBets to the silver market! I assume the...

NateVal7

The chart shows market cap for the Federal Funds rate. Let's use the analogy that the chart is the "cost" for each additional unit of market cap we are "buying" from the Fed? When times are good, "buyers" are plentiful, and the "price" goes up. When times are bad, "buyers" disappear, and "sales" go down. But the Fed doesn't want sales to fall so they've over...

NateVal7

The chart shows how many dollars of market cap exist per single unit of volatility. Let's call it market "fragility". With the higher number being more "fragile". This is not just the same percentage price swing causing a greater dollar movement because the market cap is higher. (Not 10% of 100 vs 10% of 1000.) Compare the 2000 and 2008 crashes. The market...

NateVal7

Average Sentiment Oscillator looks like everyone is long Silver. We're in a bull market and the pattern is a beautiful flag, so why not $40 by summer? But then look at the 2008 crash. Is it analogous? Ichimoku cloud is supportive, but very far below the present price level and descending away. The price is also as far above the 50 month moving average as it...

NateVal7

History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Not looking good in the short term, but the long range forecast is beautiful.

NateVal7

If the green arrows show analogous points, we have arrived here in half the time with double the ascent angle relative to the previous bull market. Is that over heated or just super bullish? With the fundamental analysis to lean on, I’m bullish but I’m also not letting my guard down.

NateVal7

Starting from the March low, silver has run up and flagged nicely. Looks ready to hit $40 by April!