Nicklaus68

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Last 3 times VIX was under 22 during FOMC minutes, it was near major tops. Looks like another one confirming to me.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

QQQ was rejected at the macro channel resistance. It begs the question: Is this more like 2000, or one of the recent V-shape recoveries? The others were near the bottom of the channel and this structure/candle looks a lot like 2000, imho. There's still 9 days left on the 3 month candle, tho. So a lot could change between now and then. I'll revisit this when the...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

New Housing Data has dropped this week and New home sales later today. It's going as expected. Cycling down and looking sharp. It's a very cyclical market, crests in July-Sept and bottoms around Jan-Mar. About 4-6 months between, once a year.

00:47

Nicklaus68 Updated 

I asked about the Blackhole cursor and apparently it's an Easter Egg they added for a short time. It's kinda fun, so check if you have it. I plotted FOMC minutes and it seems to be more of a pivot than I thought. I figured the speeches and rate decisions would've been cleaner, but these seem closer to the actual pivots. I guess we could break out of the bear...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

The fork from the 2008 bull run was too steep to hold up. However, the recent run seems a much more sustainable grade, and lines up well with past moves. Perhaps the fork channel widens more here soon, but this looks about right here. The fibs are pretty close. I doubt we see $50/brrl again soon. Should stay above the median for quite some time.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

In the past 2 BTC bear markets, shown below, BTC does at least 3 halvings when it crashes, pulling back ~40-70% each time. The last pullback is typically ~60%, marking capitulation. In the current market we've seen two halvings, and now we're on a third pullback, which could be the capitulation. We seem to have started a leg 4 up, which could run as high as...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

I've overlaid a few fib channels with Visible Range Volume Profile and Linear Regression indicators. Bottom indicator is fast and slow RSI stacked. Fast and slow RSI are both in overbought territory. So there should be a powerful move coming, either extension or reversal. It should complete by next week, perhaps very early. Bear Scenario: We're at the High Value...

Nicklaus68

Everyone has been watching this, so I figured I'd save a chart of it. See how it plays out. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes!

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Playing around with Fib channels, trying to find a bear target. 10.5k NQ should show some support as it's not only 62% linear retrace from Covid bottom, but 62% fib channel retrace from 2009 bottom to 2021 ATH. Below 10.5k gets steep pretty fast. Would be looking for 8800 or 7750 based on previous bottoms on the longer term fib channels, shown below.

Nicklaus68

When ETH cap approaches 50% BTC cap they both fall down. So crypto should be reaching a peak soon. Each time ETH holds up a little better than BTC. When BTC gets a bit closer, one of these 50% cap crosses will continue on ward until ETH cap crosses BTC cap, The Flippening. However, until that happens, I must assume they both sell off at the cross.

Nicklaus68

ETH log chart has a lot of bearish potential here, while crypto sentiment is turning very bullish. Bulls are looking for a B leg up here, but if that fails it could follow a very similar fractal, circled in white with yellow bar pattern. There's a huge volume gap in the $800-$1k range so it should spend some time there, but that may not be the bottom. $300 is...

Nicklaus68

This appears to be a Three Drives Up pattern, which is typically a topping pattern and may not follow through well at the bottom of a bear market; but I still expect some pullback to at least 50% retrace ~11100 or 62% ~11000. 11100 POC should show some support regardless of how far it runs. on a little longer TF there's also a POC around 11.2k. Pattern fails if...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

There's a lot of confluence here and a lot of reason to believe this is likely bottom, or close to it, for at least a couple weeks. We've got: Bull Butterfly harmonic, Weekly Dragonfly Doji candle, 2yr VAL, & 61.8% retrace from Covid low. As always, we can't fully trust the first 3 days off a bottom, but we'll be looking for high volume bull follow through and...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

It's looking like 5 of 5 waves is nearing completion. Retrace to 11.2k or 11.3k and finding support would be mega bullish. However 11.3k bounce could set up a rising wedge for a bigger bear move Fri/Mon, around 11.7-11.8k. 11.2k retrace and support would establish a more healthy and sustainable channel. If it breaks the channel either way, the idea is invalid....

Nicklaus68 Updated 

4hr DXY is failing the regression curve and 2nd Linear Regression, which will signal a bear move of some sort. Target 110-111

Nicklaus68 Updated 

NDTW = the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 20D Moving Averages NDFI = " " 50D MAs NDOH = " " 100D MAs NDTH = " " 200D MAs I noticed NDTW was at 1 for the first time since Covid bottom, where it only spent a week bouncing a round down there; but this is closer to the 2008 crash. So I examined that. When NDTW went under 5% in 2008 for the first ...

Nicklaus68

The Forex markets have been playing games with the U.S. Indexes; but weighted by DXY, the markets actually look much stronger, especially on the latest leg down. Possible IHS if it reverses soon. The signal up top is the difference between DXY weighted and USD weighted. If you scroll out you'll notice there's never been this much discrepancy between the two.

Nicklaus68

AAII has an excel spreadsheet of their sentiment survey that goes all the way back to 1987. Last week was the highest bearish sentiment week they've ever had at 60.87%! www.aaii.com In 2000 the highest bear sentiment it ever got was 51.1%. In the week ending 10/9/08 it peaked at 60.84%. The US100 jumped 15% the next week, but the bottom was a month...