OverexposedPhotoOfADress

OverexposedPhotoOfADress

Background. Easy confluence trade. We had the largest and fastest rally in stock history from 2022 to now. Everyone who loaded up at $380-430 is ready to take some profits. After the tariff announcements, we sold off hard through a bunch of levels and trendlines down to the bottom of the longer term uptrend. Current situation. We have retraced back up to the...

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CME:BTC1! Strong break above the downtrend resistance two weeks ago. Has consolidated and retested the line, and is near the top of this two-week consolidation. A break above 70k (70,250) and things are back into crazy-pants bullish territory. On a solid break above 70k, this entire year will look to be a consolidation after the move from 34k to 78k. Which means,...

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NASDAQ:AFRM was in a long and severe downtrend, which it turned around May of 2023. In November of last year, it rocketed out of its rut climbing from $27 to $52 in a month. You don't have to be a Wyckoff nerd to see this Sign of Strength. Well, lots of people sold their bags, and it's back down to that demand area. So, in conclusion, the trend has turned...

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KAVL has had a strong fall down to a long-term demand zone. High risk play but big bounce potential.

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Line did a zig zag and then went up. Line's doing a zig zag again.

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Two important levels from Anchored VWAP, Anchored to the all-time low, we've got 5,400 Achored to the 2018 low, we've got 15,900 Not saying this is where we're going, but I expect big buying at these levels if we get there. Be safe, but keep an eye out for deals. This is a panic.

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A couple taps formed a resistance level at $4302.75. Pretty obvious so I would be surprised if it didn't hold. We've been running for a few hundred points, could use a breather.

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Gap from the selloff has been filled. Long-term, no idea what'll happen, but this is a good take-profit level for those who caught the bottom at $20. "Coincidentally" this is also where those people are up 100%.

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Just thinking and exploring 1) Fib retrace, 2) Fib time zones, and 3) a few of the big demand and supply blocks and thought this was interesting. It lines up with the general market idea that we're at a market bottom right now, will rally for a while, and that the big next recession will start in Spring '23. We would expect a large growth afterwards and the...

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Diving into Wyckoff and market structure, and here's what I see in $SECO. Haven't incorporated volume yet, but it just ran all the stops on the downside and is squeezing back up through a solid block of covers between here and $0.40. I welcome any corrections or additional info. Ridiculous max upside on this one.

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TISI has had one of the most vicious selloffs in the entire market, but to levels we've seen before. Key levels are $2, $3, and $10. The Daily 200 EMA is at $3.50 and it's curling a bit on the hourly, so even if it never recovers, and just bounces to back to a 200 rejection, it's a 5x return. I'm in at $0.65.

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NAKD is a hot mess but strong divergence formed in the MACD. Room for a big bounce.

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I'm always looking for leading indicators and just came across something useful. There are a few indexes that represent the % of stocks in the S&P 500 above the 20, 50, 100, and 200 period moving average: S5TW, S5FI, S5OH, and S5TH respectively. If the faster index goes into a downtrend before the slower indexes, looks like it could indicate a reversal soon.

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Where is S&P500 going to go? PRICE CHANNELS Uptrend We're in an uptrend price channel from 1937 to now, and we're currently at the top of that channel. If we hit the bottom anytime soon it'd be somewhere in the range of 1600-2000. Previous Crashes We also have a channel created by the 2000 and 2008 crashes. We've broken out of the channel, but that...

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Prices are gonna go either up or down, that's for sure.

OverexposedPhotoOfADress Updated 

Hormel is in a remarkably consistent long-term channel up, and broke through to the underside for the first time. If it's gonna fall, it'll fall, but I would be surprised if, before doing so, it didn't retest the bottom of the channel by EOY. I'll be watching for slowing downward momentum. Also, if there's a market crash, everyone'll go to walmart and stock up on...

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Assuming 445 is a reversal (444 is the 62% retrace from Sept 02) here's the fib projections for the next leg. The darker the color, the more likely it'll end there. Interesting that it lines up with the Support levels so well. Good luck.

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Bearish chart pattern, that's all. No forecasting, just something to watch for. Good luck. Trade smart.