TREND:
As Benjamin Cohen said (see the link), once the weakly closes under the 50W-MA, the price go down to the 200W-MA (Happend 2 times).
If you calculate the percentage drop from the 50W-MA to the 200W-MA you get:
-for the 11 Aug 14, a drop of 59%;
-for the 28 May 18, a drop of 59%.
Now if you calculate a drop of 59% from 3 Jan 22, you get a price of around 20k...