Panos22

Panos22

(2008 MARKET CRASH CHART ) As shown in the chart, we may now see a relief rally in equities in case Trump decides to take a step back regarding tariffs, while at the same time, the FED decides to give markets a break by messaging possibly more rate cuts this year. Although I think a relief rally is coming after this correction, we may end up in a similar...

Panos22

S&P500 shows signs of fragility as equity breadth is not healthy and many hedge funds are starting to pile up shorts. Policy uncertainty ( Trump tariffs ) and unstable geopolitical developments will push stocks lower until the beginning of March. Although this will be a 15%-20% drawdown, I believe that the S&P500 will reach new highs in Q2, as the monetary policy...

Panos22

A great level to take entry for a bullish breakout as winter is ahead for the northern hemisphere, and the constant geopolitical conflicts are creating an environment for very bullish moves in commodities. I think that in the next 6 months, Natural gas futures will reach easily the 6.5$ level.

Panos22

In the coming months, I believe that every XXX/JPY pair will probably remain in a prolonged downtrend that will be combined with recession fears for the US and EU. The euro is not at its strongest position currently, and the market knows that continuous war outbreaks and conflicts (Ukraine-Russia, Iran-Israel, China-Taiwan) will only add more pressure and...

Panos22

Nasdaq seems to have reached exreme levels since the October 2023 bottom but i believe that the rally has not ended yet, at least until the mid of the month. Next level to reach 19000, expecting a breakout from the channek at the end of the week.

Panos22

A clear correlation between Euro Stoxx 50 - Ftse 100 ratio, and the EUR/GBP exchange rate. I believe we will see European equities outperforming until January 2024, and the pound getting stronger, reaching 1.4 to 1.5 level versus the euro. From a macro perspective, the UK is in a harder corner as inflation is clearly more elevated, but this will also force UK...

Panos22 Updated 

SPX/GOLD ratio turning bearish again. A major start for another strong commodity cycle.

Panos22

The current macroeconomic environment shows that the US will unavoidably enter a recession between the end of Q3 and mid-Q4. The Fed is pushing the boundaries and has stated until recently that the Fed Funds rate will stay elevated for some period, which in my opinion, the markets are not pricing in correctly. Operating margins and earnings, especially for tech...

Panos22

With credit conditions starting to deteriorate currently,(mostly in Europe) high yielding debt will definitely be most negatively affected, especially after the first rate hikes from the Fed. Another great opportunity here to go short. The structure shows clearly a developing Wyckoff distribution similar to the one of Bitocin just before it crashed to 30k last May.