PrometheusCHT

PrometheusCHT

Rally may be exhausting!?!

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MACD crossover underway in USDMXN... Given the magnitude of the move in the Peso after Trump's election, it's reasonable to assume that any reaction to a Fed hike should be lesser vis other EM currencies given there's value here in Peso.

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Looking rather bearish given this interpretation.

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Coinciding with the breakout.

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Soybean Oil is breaking out to the upside... Credit to Peter L Brandt & Factor Trading for bringing it to my attention! Trailing stop 3.5x ATR.

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In an unmistakeable correlation, a higher short end of the curve means gold is relatively less attractive to own. This argument has strong claims on both reason and evidence... Hence, with a hikepending, watch for gold lower.

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Gold, Euro and USDJPY (inverted) all through key levels simultaneously.

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Gold might have a resistance to oxidation, but its price is malleable just like the metal. Lower.

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For anyone long bear in mind, momentum is turning.

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MACD has turned bullish coinciding with a potential break through resistance.

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Using the rule of 16 and the 1/3 trading days time frame, the following translations should be committed to memory: VIX of 16 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 1% VIX of 32 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 2% VIX of 48 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 3%

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I'm not sure if a Head & Shoulders pattern is the correct interpretation here, albeit, a neckline is fairly visible. Further, the probability of its breach increases with every re-test.

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What holds the most information value: A falling Sterling post-Brexit, or rising Gilt yields? I expect to see this resolve in the direction of yields...

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This is arguably my favourite gold interpretation. Albeit, I consider Fibonacci to be pseudoscientific, so I don't weight the internal lines highly, except for the fact that they do appear to represent support and resistance to some extent. In any case, I think there's a reasonable case for gold to resume it's trend lower.

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Looking for the intraday breakdown... If my idea comes to fruition I think this could become a position trade. Seasonally November-December is unkind to pet rocks and paperweights alike.

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The gold/copper ratio has completed a 50% retracement of its uptrend after breaking the up-trend line...

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By extension of the reconvergence trade between EEM & HG_F, it's now worth looking at EEM vs DXY (inverted). If this dollar break-out ensues, it bodes rather negatively for EEM. One could reasonably argue the case to be short EEM on this basis.

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See linked post.