PropNotes

PropNotes

Looks like risk off in front of the Fed today. I'm a buyer into this degree of downside extension for a short term bounce play. No real catalyst for the selloff aside from the lower trading revs guide, but I don't think that's a huge deal and was already mostly priced in due to the general slowing market conditions.

PropNotes

Over the course of the last couple days, BTCUSD has been rejected from the previous highs after failing to gain any buying volume on the attempted breakout. This furthers the idea that we are on the "backside" of the move, and there will likely be more downside. Of course, BTC could always surprise to the upside, but we have bids out near 20k. Cheers!

PropNotes Updated 

We've gotten some questions of late about how to trade the AMC squeeze, and while we don't have any position, we have a simple, defined risk trade here that we would consider taking if triggered. If it closes green today, and gaps up tomorrow, we would strongly look at buying some ATM Aug Puts. No matter what happens here, it's clear that fair value for this...

PropNotes Updated 

I was talking to a buddy of mine last weekend who works in lumber, and we were just chatting about the markets over some drinks. At one point in the conversation, we were talking about shipping, and he was mentioning that "you can't beg, borrow, or steal" (verbatim) freight traffic right now, because of the shipping situation at the port of LA. In other words,...

PropNotes Updated 

I'm of the opinion that the oil market has gone too far, too fast (along with a bunch of other commodities), and I'm looking at this as a potential spot to get some short. Even prior to covid, in what you might call a "normal" supply and demand environment, oil stayed between 75 and 27, with the majority of the price action occurring between 65 and 43. Oil is at a...

PropNotes

You have no idea how hard it was for me to avoid buying LMND today. At just 1/3 of it's former high from a few months ago, this stock looks like a bargain, as the fundamental story remains intact. However, with multiples compressing, fcf machines crushing, and TLT getting smoked I'm extremely nervous to dip a toe here. I've settled for selling jun 4 $50 strike...

PropNotes

Morning all! I can smell the risk off in the air. Just thinking here that PYPL looks like a decent long if you can find a decent candle to execute off of, if it gets hammered on good earnings this week. Might not come to fruition but I like it broadly.

PropNotes

Spectacular looking weekly chart combined with a nice price base on the daily, combined with relative strength this morning off the ISM number & an in favor business model. This could easily see 55 again soon. I'm risking a small amount vs 37.34. Good luck to all! Cheers!

PropNotes

This is a three piece yield swap // Long MPLX - a high quality, cheap, high yield MLP Long PINE - an extremely high quality high yielding REIT Short HE - an overvalued, constrained utility poised to underperform long term with heavy overinvestment in legacy renewables. Should yield about 3% with hedged risk and some medium term upside I estimate around +40%. If...

PropNotes

The chart really speaks for itself here. Even though we have bounced off of the recent lows, the trending price structure is now cracked. This will likely lead to chop / downside for the near / medium future. I don't like it long from here. This isn't to say we won't see highs, but the daily chart momentum is over for the near term. Cheers!

PropNotes Updated 

Alright, so a quick idea I just had that I don't dislike too much -- gun to head I think TSLA looks good long above 721. I think a ton of new buying momentum could come in, propelling the stock higher. Granted, I still hate the valuation and this is a *TRADE* idea, not an investment, but buying the breakout and then risking to the weekly candle low could be a real...

PropNotes Updated 

Took this long this morning risking vs 31.65. Combined effects of infrastructure bill - copper + pm spend, as well as inflation, help this industry tremendously in terms of commodity prices. On top of that, we made a higher low recently which is technically bullish. TGT 40 for me on this for $1.35 of risk.

PropNotes

Delicious looking stat arb opportunity but man is there a lot of risk. DISCB 300k float. Godspeed! Cheers!

PropNotes Updated 

Chatter is that HILLHOUSE CAPITAL in china is being unwound in FTCH IQ VIAC DISCA right now. I liked it as a short, and now I like it as a long, having gone from 24 - 11 PE in three trading sessions. Blood is in the streets.

18:52

PropNotes Updated 

Thanks again for watching. Let me know if you have any questions in the commnents! It's important to mention - people talk about "moat" for this exact reason - it's to determine how long the company's net income will be stable in the face of margin-reducing competition. It's also why anticompetitive companies are more expensive, like I alluded to with google in...

19:47

PropNotes Updated 

Additional avenues for analysis - considering more the market space and the peer set, diving more into growth prospects and other analyst commentary, and understanding the context for which multiples change and how you can be prepared for that. Cheers!

19:51

PropNotes Updated 

Error: at 8:36 I say "earn about 15x it's net income." I meant to say that companies are generally WORTH about 15x their net income, on average. ONE THING I DIDN'T TALK ABOUT CLEARLY ENOUGH - when it comes to figuring out how much you are paying for the "box" you are interested in, it's MOST useful to compare the p/e multiple you are paying vs the multiple the...

PropNotes

Well, we knew it was going to happen at some point. It finally seems that the IWM is out of gas compared to the major tech stocks which have spent the better part of 6 months going sideways. Over the long term, the trend of tech eating the world has been playing out, with large cap tech outperforming almost everything, especially mid cap blend, represented by IWM....